Crime Families as a Case Study: The Ahmad Clan
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A Narrative of Victimhood, a Message of Victory: Iran’s Influence Strategy
On the modern battlefield, combat is not only conducted through military strikes but also through images, videos, and, especially, narrative design. In recent years, the battle over public perception has become a central component of conflicts between states and terrorist entities, as they seek to
Between Lebanon and Iran: The End of Hezbollah’s Strategic Ambiguity
For years, the debate over Hezbollah has been accompanied by a central question: Is it a Lebanese organization operating in the interests of the state and the Shiite community, or an Iranian branch that primarily serves Tehran’s regional strategy? The organization itself has cultivated deliberate
Rising Tensions on the Lebanon–Syria Border as Hezbollah Alleges Syrian Offensive Preparations
Are the forces of Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the leader of Syria, planning to invade Lebanese territory to exact revenge on Hezbollah? This potential move is viewed either as retaliation for Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian Civil War or as part of a strategic deal orchestrated with
Hezbollah’s Effort to Establish a New Psychological Equation on Israel’s Northern Front
In recent days, there has been a noticeable escalation in the scope of Hezbollah’s attacks against northern Israel, including the use of drones, anti-tank, and rocket attacks. At the same time, the organization has issued evacuation notices to residents of Israel’s northern communities, using wording
The Resignation of Wafiq Safa from Hezbollah: Initial Summary and Implications
On February 6, Wafiq Safa, a veteran senior commander in Hezbollah, stepped down from his position as head of the organization’s “Liaison and Coordination Unit” (it remains unclear whether he resigned or was dismissed). While some observers view this as a dramatic development signaling a
Al-Qaeda’s attempts to exploit the escalating U.S.–Iran tensions
Against the backdrop of rising tensions between the United States and Iran, reflected in the buildup of U.S. military forces in the Middle East, al-Qaeda is calling for a jihadist war against the American presence in the region and for halting what it describes as
An EU Designation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as a Terrorist Organization – Implications
A European Union’s designation of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization is mainly declarative but carries legal and deterrence implications. Until now, enforcement largely depended on U.S. sanctions, with European compliance shaped by extraterritorial exposure rather than EU law. The designation
Analysis of Possible Scenarios vis-à-vis Iran against the Backdrop of a Potential U.S. Strike and the Weakening of the Current Protest Wave
There are two central and plausible short-term scenarios on the Iranian front: A possible U.S. strike on Iran could lead to renewed domestic protests focused on regime change. In such a case, Iran could carry out retaliation against Israel and neighboring states in the Gulf.
Hezbollah: Between Loyalty to Tehran and Survival in Lebanon
While Hezbollah’s rhetoric is becoming increasingly radical and loyal to Iran and the “Axis of Resistance,” the organization itself is acting with caution and restraint. Behind the militant declarations stands an actor under growing political pressure in the Lebanese arena, required to navigate between its
Operational Integration of AI and Cyber: An Analysis of “Epic Fury / Roaring Lion”
The joint U.S. and Israeli operation “Epic Fury / Roaring Lion” (February 2026) signifies a definitive shift in modern warfare, moving Artificial Intelligence (AI) and cyber capabilities from elective support to core structural components of campaign design. This evolution suggests a new paradigm where computational
Lebanon’s Reluctant Shield: Hezbollah Between Tehran, Beirut, and the Next War
Introduction This paper argues that Hezbollah’s decision to join the renewed 2026 war with Israel is neither a simple act of “axis discipline” nor just an automatic extension of its traditional resistance role, but the product of a narrowing strategic corridor shaped by three forces:
Iran’s Information Warfare During the December 2025 – January 2026 Protests and Its Continued Influence on Israel and the West
Abstract This report analyzes Iran’s information warfare during the December 2025 – January 2026 protests and its parallel influence efforts targeting Israel and the West. Facing widespread economic unrest, the regime used physical repression and a coordinated narrative campaign, labeling demonstrators as agents of the
From Missiles to Minds: Iran’s Influence-Driven War Strategy
Download Abstract This paper analyzes Iran’s operational strategy during the current conflict, arguing that Tehran has adopted an influence-centric approach in which cognitive effects are prioritized over conventional military outcomes. Facing clear limitations in its ability to confront the combined military capabilities of Israel and
Wave of Attacks Against Jewish and Israeli Targets Abroad – Trends and Insights
During March 2026, a series of attacks and antisemitic incidents targeting Jewish and Israeli sites were recorded worldwide, alongside foiled plots and arrests indicating ongoing intentions to carry out additional attacks. In Europe, several explosive attacks were carried out. On March 9, an explosive device
Iran’s Statecraft: Shaping Identity and Cognitive Framing Amid Societal Cohesion Challenges
Abstract This paper examines the ideological and psycho-political mechanisms through which the Islamic Republic of Iran maintains its political legitimacy, sustains social cohesion, and ensures regime durability. The analysis shows how religion, nationalism, economic monopolies, media control, institutional infrastructure, and militarized mobilization function in a
Hezbollah’s Financing Ecosystem – Hezbollah’s Use of Clan Networks in the Diaspora: the Fawaz Clan Case Study
Fawaz Clan Case StudyDownload This research was conducted with the generous backing, expertise, and funding of CENTEF (Center for Research of Terror Financing). We extend our sincere gratitude for their comprehensive support of this project. This research was made possible through the support of 240 Analytics
Iran’s Quds Day: A Manifest of Animosity
Abstract On March 28, the Islamic Republic of Iran held its annual Ruz-e Jehani-ye Quds (henceforth: Quds Day) ceremony to express the nation’s support for the Palestinians. Iran makes notable efforts to commemorate this event, mobilizing its citizens to flood the streets in a manifestation
Iran’s Public Diplomacy in Latin America
Abstract The International Institute for Counter-Terrorism at Reichman University published several studies emphasizing Iran’s infiltration and the formation of terrorist cells and networks throughout Latin America. This research explores an additional approach by which the Iranian mechanism functions, utilizing many sources of influence and public
Is Jordan an Emerging Iranian Anti-Israel Attrition Front?
Abstract This paper examines the intensifying threats posed by Iran’s expanding influence in Jordan, presenting significant security implications for both Israel and Jordan. Against the backdrop of Israel’s recent operations against Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank, the study explores two primary dynamics shaping
A Sunni Shia Army Against Israel and the West? The alliance between the al-Qaeda leadership and the Iranian regime
Abstract This paper explores the evolving alliance between the Iranian regime and al-Qaeda, a relationship that has gained strength following the appointment of Sheikh Seif al-Adel as al-Qaeda’s leader after the assassination of Sheikh Ayman al-Zawahiri. The paper examines the implications of this alliance for
The Growing Criticism of Lebanese Christians Towards Hezbollah’s Involvement in the Campaign Against Israel
Abstract This paper delves into the increasing criticism among Lebanese Christians regarding Hezbollah’s involvement in the ongoing conflict against Israel, highlighting the mounting discontent not only from Christians but also from Sunnis and Shiites in Lebanon. The criticism underscores the detrimental impact on Lebanon’s stability
Ayatollah Khomeini’s Approach to the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict and its Longstanding Ramifications
Abstract This article examines the long-term efforts made by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to create revolutionary opposition to the rule of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, while exploiting the evolving relations between Iran and Israel as a blueprint for his proclamations. Khomeini’s anti-Israel policies had both anti-
Penetration and Influence of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Latin America
Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran has actively sought to establish itself as a key player both in the Middle East and on the global stage. This ambition has been largely shaped by its antagonistic relations with the United States and Israel, along with critical
Iran and al-Qaeda Under Sheikh Saif al-Adel: The Ramifications for Israel
Since 9/11 attacks Iran became a safe haven for senior al-Qaeda members as well as a hub for terror activity planning, fund raising, recruiting and more, especially for Sheikh Saif al-Adel, al-Qaeda’s current leader. Al-Adel, that apparently rose to power after the killing of Ayman
The War in Gaza From Local to Regional
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned on April 20, 2023, that Israel would likely no longer see limited conflicts on single fronts, but rather would have to face a multi-front escalation in the near future. Defense Minister Galant’s warning proved to be correct and Israel is
Between Gaza and Sana’a
The Houthi rebels in Yemen, with Iran’s support, have intensified hostilities by targeting Israel with missiles and drones, signaling their alignment with Hamas, Hezbollah, and other Palestinian resistance groups. Since October 19, 2023, they have attacked Israel multiple times, with interceptions by the USS Carney,
Belgium’s Shameful and Dangerous Deal with Iran
Recently Belgium reached a shameful deal with Iran: an innocent Belgian aid worker, Olivier Vandecasteele, held for 455 days in Iran on fake charges of spying, was swapped for an Iranian intelligence officer, Assadollah Assadi, convicted to 20 years in prison for orchestrating together with
The Hijab Protest: Between Continuity and Change
The ongoing protests in Iran, which began following the death of Mahsa Amini, present a significant challenge to the post-revolutionary regime. The protests have not diminished despite violent suppression efforts by the establishment, and there are several distinguishing features of the current unrest compared to
Iran’s Strategy of Terrorist Blackmail in a Historic Perspective
This article argues that the Iranian regime successfully uses a terrorist blackmail strategy since the 1979 hostage saga of American diplomats at the US Tehran embassy, the bombings against the US Marines and French paratroopers of the Multinational Peace Force in Beirut in 1983, the
A Match Made in Heaven: The Hezbollah-Amal Nexus
Over the past decades, Hezbollah has built a well-oiled, multi-billion-dollar illicit finance and drug-trafficking machine in Latin America that launders organized crime’s ill-gotten gains through multiple waypoints in the Western Hemisphere, West Africa, Europe, and the Middle East, generating hundreds of millions of annual revenues.
Hezbollah’s Threats on Karish Gas Drilling Rig and Israeli Natural Gas Production – a Potential for a Miscalculation That May Lead to War
Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah’s threats on Karish gas drilling rig and prevent the production and export of gas from Israel’s reservoirs if Lebanon’s demands regarding the latter’s marine border with Israel constitute a significant escalation in Hezbollah’s aggressive rhetoric and may lead to another miscalculation
Propaganda, Narratives and Influence in Latin America: Iran, Hezbollah and Al-Tajammu
Since the end of the last century, Latin America has been a prominent area in which Iran has sought to expand its influence and scope of action. From drug smuggling to money laundering, from fundraising to recruitment and proselytism, even terrorist attacks, Iran-related activities in
Iran and Hezbollah Mentor Terrorist Organizations on Propaganda: The Hamas and Islamic Jihad Case
One of the major areas terrorist organizations operate to influence their enemy’s public opinion ispropaganda. This war is being waged via traditional media and social media. The last two rounds ofhostilities in Gaza Operation Protective Edge (2014) and Guardian of the Walls (2021) manifested theimportance
Trends in Cyber-Terrorism 2021
Cyberspace has become one of the main arenas for state warfare. It is also largely used by non-state actors or state sponsored actors, including criminal networks and terrorist organisations. In recent years, their operations in cyberspace have become a real challenge for global security. Throughout
Nasrallah’s Coughing Speech and the Question of His Successor
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s coughing speech on May 25, 2021, and especially the long absence that preceded it, raised quite a few question marks as to his health condition. Hezbollah claims that this is an insignificant allergy or medical defect and there is no basis
Russia, Iran and Hezbollah: A temporary alliance or long-term threat?
The deep Russian military involvement in Syria is slowly leading to a de facto restructuring of Middle Eastern alliances, putting America’s influence at risk, and Israel’s interests at stake. First published in Haaretz
Iran Wave of Protest: Overview and Regional Implications
Introduction On December 28, 2025, protests erupted in Iran and rapidly expanded to additional cities and regions across the country. This wave of unrest is marked by heightened intensity and an unusually broad geographic scope. Although the immediate collapse of the regime appears improbable, the
Jihadists threats to Latin America and Hezbollah and Iran in Peru
During my participation at the International Seminar for the Combat of Terrorism and the Financing of Terrorism in Buenos Aires, Argentina on November 30, 2016, I presented a short evaluation about the terrorism threats coming from the Middle East.
The U.S. Caesar Act Could Benefit Iran and Hezbollah
On June 17th 2020, the U.S. Government started implementing several aspects of the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019. The purpose of this Act is to make Syrian President Assad’s regime accountable for its atrocities during the ongoing Syrian Civil War, while at the same
The Beirut Explosion – Is there a Hezbollah Connection?
The major questions regarding the causes, and responsibilities, of the catastrophic explosion relate to the origin and destination of the ammonium nitrate cargo and the reasons that led to its storage in the Beirut port for six years.
Russia’s Policy vis-à-vis Iran and Hezbollah
Today, the Middle East remains vital for the realization of Russia’s interests in the southern part of its post-Soviet territories. This article discusses Iran and Hezbollah in the context of Russia’s tactical and strategic considerations and foreign policy interests in the Middle East.
Iran and Hezbollah Bandwagon Hamas’ Fight
Last year, after deserting the Iranian-led “axis of resistance” and positioning itself in the Sunni coalition against the Assad regime in Syria, Hamas lost the backing of the short-lived Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt and incurred the bitter enmity of the new military rulers in
Iran and Shi’ite Terrorism – The Decision-Making System in Iran and the Balance of Power
Since the end of the Iran-Iraq war and the death of Khomeini, Iran has been in a state of internal struggle for the continuation of the Islamic Republic. The first stage of the struggle was waged between the “conservatives” and the “reformists”.
Civil Society Organizations: Non-Traditional Actors in the Process of Radicalization
Civil Society Organizations: Non-Traditional Actors in the Process of Radicalization Prof. Gerald M. Steinberg and Olga Deutsch[1] In the ongoing attempts to disaggregate and understand the complex array of factors contributing to the rise of terrorism, “radicalization” has become a generalized and often catch-all
The Revolutionary Guards, Past, Present and Directions for Future Development
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was established soon after the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1980 and was composed of the same groups that led the revolution. There were two central reasons for the establishment of the IRGC. First, it was designed to defend
Iran and the Houthi in Yemen (2019)
Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran has been acting in any way possible to promote its interests in the Middle East, including the expansion of its sphere of influence within the Shiite communities, whom it has been able to harness to its needs. This