There are two central and plausible short-term scenarios on the Iranian front: A possible U.S. strike on Iran could lead to renewed domestic protests focused on regime change. In such a case, Iran could carry out retaliation against Israel and neighboring states in the Gulf.
The ongoing protests in Iran, which began following the death of Mahsa Amini, present a significant challenge to the post-revolutionary regime. The protests have not diminished despite violent suppression efforts by the establishment, and there are several distinguishing features of the current unrest compared to
Introduction On December 28, 2025, protests erupted in Iran and rapidly expanded to additional cities and regions across the country. This wave of unrest is marked by heightened intensity and an unusually broad geographic scope. Although the immediate collapse of the regime appears improbable, the
