There are two central and plausible short-term scenarios on the Iranian front:

• A possible U.S. strike on Iran could lead to renewed domestic protests focused on regime change. In such a case, Iran could carry out retaliation against Israel and neighboring states in the Gulf.
• After a U.S. strike that does not result in regime change—or in the absence of a strike altogether—Iran will most likely focus on fostering its military power and may consider a breakthrough toward a military nuclear capability.

The first scenario involves a possible U.S. military strike against Iran, which could weaken the regime and may trigger a renewed wave of domestic unrest. While the Iranian public was previously deterred by heavy casualties during the early protests, strong external pressure could potentially reopen cracks in Iran’s internal stability.

Under such a scenario, in which Iran is destabilized by a U.S. attack, Iran could carry out retaliation against Israel and neighboring states in the Gulf. Therefore, Israel’s primary focus should be on strengthening its defensive posture in anticipation of a possible Iranian response. In the case of an Iranian attack, Israel could seek to conduct strikes on strategic Iranian targets that were not addressed during the 12-day war, including facilities linked to enriched uranium.

The second scenario involves either a possible U.S. strike that does not lead to regime change or no strike at all. After suppressing protests and reasserting control, the Iranian regime may conclude that its primary threat is external and will most likely focus on fostering its military power and may consider a breakthrough toward a military nuclear capability.

From the regime’s perspective, having a military nuclear capability would function as an insurance policy: a powerful deterrent intended to reduce the risk of external attack and to limit future attempts to challenge its survival.

An Iranian attempt for a nuclear breakthrough would create a major strategic risk for Israel. Israel will need to operate with the support and cooperation of the U.S. and launch another round of attacks against Iran. In this case, Israel could confront a higher volume of fire in retaliation from Iranthan in the previous war, potentially facing 200–300 missiles per day over a prolonged period.