On 11 January, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) released an ideological document articulating an apocalyptic worldview in which the organization anticipates a Third World War that would fundamentally reshape the global order. According to the document, such a systemic transformation would create strategic opportunities for AQAP and other extremist Islamist movements to exploit structural shifts in the international system in order to confront their perceived adversaries. These include both the “near enemy” within the Muslim world—primarily secular and nationalist actors—and the “far enemy,” identified as the Western-led international order.

The cover page of the document, entitled “The Future of Islam in Light of Contemporary Global Changes”

Global Crises as Indicators of Systemic Collapse

The document frames current international developments as indicators of an impending global conflict and an emerging “clash of civilizations.” The organization cites a range of phenomena as evidence of this trajectory, including pandemics, natural disasters, regional conflicts, economic instability, and growing Islamist hostility toward what it terms the Zionist–American alliance, apparently in reference to the war in Gaza. AQAP portrays the contemporary international system as morally, politically, and socially corrupt, emphasizing widening socio-economic inequalities and declining public trust in religious authorities, political leaders, and state institutions.

Strategic Opportunities and the Targeting of the “Near Enemy”

Within this framework, AQAP argues that the coming years will be marked by intensified warfare and systemic disruption, constituting a rare historical moment that must be exploited to strengthen Islamist forces and weaken—or eliminate—secular, nationalist, and nation-state–oriented movements within the Muslim ummah. As part of this argument, the organization criticizes secular and nationalist power structures in Egypt, accusing them of marginalizing the Muslim Brotherhood and facilitating its designation as a terrorist organization.

Mobilization, Propaganda, and Preparation for Jihad

The document calls on AQAP supporters to intensify propaganda and mobilization efforts against Muslim regimes aligned with the West, such as Egypt, while preparing for jihad in anticipation of an impending transformation of the global order. It further emphasizes the strategic importance of cultivating ties with Muslim populations as a means of expanding influence and legitimacy.

Historical Self-Perception and the Turn to Armed Struggle

AQAP situates its current narrative within its broader historical self-perception. Since its establishment, the organization claims to have sought to raise awareness within the Muslim world of an existential threat to Islamic identity posed by the Zionist–American alliance, allegedly operating through mechanisms of “soft power.” The document argues that resource constraints limited AQAP’s ability to shape public opinion on a wide scale, prompting a shift toward armed confrontation with the United States in Afghanistan as a means of catalyzing broader mobilization within the Muslim world.

The Decline of Western Hegemony and the Rise of Alternative Power Centers

According to AQAP, Western military and political focus on counterterrorism campaigns in Afghanistan contributed indirectly to the rise of alternative power centers, particularly Russia and China, while simultaneously accelerating the erosion of Western dominance in global decision-making processes: 

“The West has failed at all levels: it has offered the world nothing essential but has instead brought opportunism and boundless greed for resources, human and spiritual collapse, waste of resources, and pollution of the entire planet. It continues to manipulate the human element. Therefore, it is imperative to act with full seriousness to remove the West from political competition and to distance it from the highest centers of decision-making, thereby reopening space for the two steeds of Islam: da‘wa and jihad.”

American Leadership Failures and the Acceleration of Global Instability

The document attributes a significant role in accelerating global instability to U.S. President Donald Trump. Domestically, Trump is depicted as exacerbating social polarization in the United States to the point of potential civil conflict. In parallel, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is portrayed as contributing to social fragmentation in Israel, while Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is characterized as a failed leader whose governance has resulted in societal collapse due to a lack of religious and moral grounding.

In the international arena, AQAP claims that U.S. policy under Trump has been characterized by rhetorical assertiveness coupled with strategic retrenchment, weakening alliance commitments, and undermining international institutions such as the United Nations. The organization frames these developments as evidence of a shift toward unilateralism and neo-colonial practices, citing the alleged attempt to abduct Maduro as illustrative of this trend.

Section of the Document Focusing on the Trump Administration

Positioning vis-à-vis Non-Western Powers

AQAP identifies China, Russia, Iran, and Turkey as actors whose policies contribute to the relative decline of Western influence. However, it explicitly rejects the prospect of formal cooperation with these states and asserts that it will avoid confrontation with them unless directly challenged. While the organization allows for the possibility of tacit or instrumental support from these actors in the future, it underscores the contingent and unreliable nature of such assistance.

Delegitimizing Muslim Regimes and Elevating Militant Agency

The document further accuses political leaderships in Muslim-majority states of eroding Islamic identity, suppressing political and civil freedoms, and subordinating domestic interests to Western agendas. Against this backdrop, AQAP asserts that the trajectory of jihad and political Islam in a transforming global system depends primarily on the actions of ideologically committed Islamist actors.

Assessment

From an analytical perspective, the AQAP document seeks to reinterpret ongoing global disruptions as confirmation of an inevitable collapse of Western hegemony and the onset of a systemic civilizational conflict. The projected Third World War functions less as an empirical forecast than as a mobilizing narrative, designed to legitimize continued armed struggle and to delegitimize political, reformist, or accommodationist alternatives within the Muslim world.

While the organization acknowledges the potential utility of temporary alignments with non-Western powers such as China, Russia, Iran, and Turkey, it ultimately frames such relationships as tactical rather than strategic, emphasizing ideological autonomy and operational flexibility.

Overall, the document should be understood not as a rigorous analysis of international dynamics but as a strategic communication tool aimed at shaping perceptions, mobilizing supporters, and sustaining AQAP’s relevance within the broader ecosystem of extremist Islamist movements. Its analytical value lies primarily in the insight it provides into how global crises are selectively interpreted and instrumentalized to reinforce the ideological foundations of contemporary jihadist discourse.