Abstract

This article analyzes the election of Joseph Aoun as President of Lebanon in January 2025, set against the backdrop of the country’s deep political and economic crisis. Aoun’s election, which followed 12 unsuccessful attempts to choose a president, was ultimately secured through a compromise among parliamentary factions, including Hezbollah and Amal, despite their initial opposition. This development signals a significant shift in Lebanon’s political landscape, which in recent years has been heavily influenced by Hezbollah and Iranian involvement.
The article underscores the complex challenges awaiting Aoun as he assumes office. These include the formation of a stable and functional government, the urgent need to rehabilitate Lebanon’s deteriorating economy, and the imperative to strengthen the Lebanese Armed Forces by ensuring their exclusive control over weapons. Additionally, Aoun will need to prioritize the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and work toward transforming the recent ceasefire with Israel into a long-lasting arrangement.
Furthermore, the article delves into Hezbollah’s ongoing efforts to preserve its influence by promoting its “resistance” narrative against Israel. However, it also highlights the organization’s diminished power and weakened position within the political arena. This evolving dynamic may pave the way for a recalibration of Lebanon’s internal power structure, offering a rare window of opportunity to restore national stability, reinforce state sovereignty, and realign Lebanon’s strategic orientation within the region.

Introduction

In the past decade, Lebanon has experienced unprecedented political and economic crises, culminating in the failure to reach an agreement on the identity of the country’s president following the departure of Michel Aoun in October 2022. For more than two years after the end of his six-year term, Lebanon functioned without an acting president and without a stable government. The caretaker government led by Najib Mikati struggled to address the challenges it faced, and the political crisis further exacerbated the severe economic situation. Lebanon has been dealing with a significant depreciation of its currency, the collapse of basic services, and a war with Israel. The instability has affected all aspects of life in Lebanon and increased pressure from the international community to find a political solution that would ensure stability and enable recovery.

The process was set in motion definitively following the signing of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon in November 2024. A day after the ceasefire came into effect, the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berri, who also serves as the head of the Shiite Amal movement, announced that the presidential elections would be held in January 2025.

The Election of Joseph Aoun

After prolonged negotiations among the factions in the Lebanese parliament and the inability to reach an agreement during 12 previous attempts to elect a president, Joseph Aoun, the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces since 2017, was elected as the country’s new president. Aoun’s election was achieved as a compromise among parliamentary factions, including Amal and Hezbollah, who initially opposed his candidacy. These factions had supported the nomination of Suleiman Frangieh, who ultimately withdrew when it became clear he would not secure enough support.

In the first round of voting, Aoun received 71 votes out of 128 members of parliament, falling short of the required two-thirds majority of 86 votes. Following this round, reports emerged that Aoun held meetings with representatives from the Amal and Hezbollah factions, after which they decided to support his candidacy despite their initial objections. In the second round of voting, which required only a simple majority of 65 votes, Aoun won decisively with 99 votes. This outcome reflected a shift in the positions of some factions and underscored the broad political support he garnered ahead of assuming office.

Sources affiliated with Lebanon’s “Axis of Resistance” claim that the Biden administration, in coordination with the team of President-elect Donald Trump, worked closely with Saudi Arabia and Qatar to secure the election of General Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s president.^[1] Criticism was directed at what was perceived as an attempt to strengthen the Sunni axis at the expense of the Shiite axis, against the backdrop of political shifts in Syria. These sources noted that after years of Alawite dominance in Syria, associated with the Shiite-led resistance axis, Sunni forces assumed control, describing this development as part of a broader regional trend aimed at weakening Iranian-Shiite influence in the Middle East.

Ahead of Aoun’s election, Hezbollah and Amal’s rhetoric primarily focused on promoting candidates who represented their interests while seeking to block those perceived as opponents of the organization. The head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, Mohammad Raad, emphasized, “We are the true defenders of the people, and we will remain loyal to our country and our people.” Raad also explained the faction’s decision not to support Aoun in the first round, stating that “this was a message indicating that we are safeguarding the national consensus within the country.”^[3]

Following Aoun’s election, Hezbollah’s discourse shifted, with the group highlighting its support for the president as a representative of broader national interests in Lebanon, though, at times, this was seen as a tactical political maneuver.

It is important to note that Hezbollah has previously sought to obstruct the election of presidents as part of its efforts to maintain its political influence and advance candidates who would guarantee the group’s continued dominance. However, in these recent elections, Hezbollah found itself in a weakened position. Internal Lebanese actors, recognizing the group’s diminished standing, aligned with its opponents and worked to limit Hezbollah’s ability to exert full control over the electoral process.

Reactions to the Election of Joseph Aoun

The election of Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s president is widely seen as signaling a significant shift in the country’s political landscape, which in recent years has been heavily influenced by Hezbollah and Iranian involvement. Following Aoun’s election, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states publicly expressed their support for the development, alongside calls to deepen cooperation between Lebanon and its Gulf neighbors. In parallel, the United Arab Emirates announced the full restoration of its embassy operations in Beirut – an indication of its desire to improve diplomatic relations.

Iran, seemingly intent on maintaining its influence in Lebanon, also responded positively to Aoun’s election, portraying it as a victory for Lebanese national unity. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian congratulated his Lebanese counterpart while condemning foreign interference in Lebanon, emphasizing Iran’s commitment to supporting a stable and independent Lebanon. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued an official statement via his X account: “Iran supports a stable, secure, and independent Lebanon – a home for all Lebanese, free from foreign influences or threats.”^[4]

Additionally, President Aoun received a congratulatory phone call from Ahmad al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the new leader of Syria’s government. Al-Sharaa underscored the historical bond uniting the Syrian and Lebanese peoples and expressed hope for closer cooperation between the two countries in the future.

Key Challenges Facing the New President

Forming a Government, Strengthening State Institutions, and Economic Recovery

One of the most pressing challenges facing President Joseph Aoun is the formation of a functional government capable of driving reforms and addressing Lebanon’s severe economic crisis. This task is particularly complex due to the need for cooperation among political factions with conflicting interests. “I hope to form a government as soon as possible to get things back on track and start building bridges of trust with the world,” Aoun stated upon his election in January 2025.

Just days after taking office, the magnitude of this challenge became clear during consultations to appoint a new prime minister. The Shiite axis, seeking to preserve its political influence, pushed to keep Najib Mikati, who had been serving as caretaker prime minister, in a permanent role. Despite these efforts, their weakened parliamentary standing ultimately prevented them from blocking the appointment of Nawaf Salam, Aoun’s preferred candidate.

Salam is a well-respected figure within the international community, known for his tenure as President of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and his past role as Lebanon’s ambassador to the United Nations. His appointment garnered the support of more than 80 of the 128 parliament members, despite Hezbollah representatives abstaining from the vote. This outcome reflects Hezbollah’s diminished influence after years of wielding considerable control over Lebanon’s political decision-making processes.

The Military’s Monopoly on Weapons and Relations with Hezbollah

President Joseph Aoun has made a clear and unequivocal commitment to ensuring that the Lebanese Armed Forces maintain an exclusive monopoly on the use of weapons within the country – a stance that could lead to immediate or future confrontation with Hezbollah. “It is Lebanon’s exclusive right to maintain a monopoly on weapons. The Lebanese Army is the institution upon which the nation is built,” the president declared, emphasizing the country’s sovereignty and the unity of its institutions.

This position was symbolically reinforced by a prominent billboard in Beirut featuring Aoun’s image alongside the slogan “Army-People-State” – a direct contrast to Hezbollah’s long-standing slogan, “Army-People-Resistance.”^[7]

Hezbollah supporters on social media responded with sharp criticism, asserting that such a billboard would not remain standing for long in areas under Shiite control. The public display of this message signals a potential shift in the political discourse surrounding Lebanon’s national defense and challenges Hezbollah’s parallel military infrastructure, which for years operated with significant autonomy despite state efforts to assert authority.

Implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and Establishing a Permanent Ceasefire with Israel

One of President Joseph Aoun’s key priorities is the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for the disarmament of armed militias and the establishment of full government control over southern Lebanon. This resolution, adopted in the aftermath of the 2006 Lebanon War, has never been fully enforced. In this context, Aoun is expected to face mounting international pressure to transform the ceasefire with Israel into a permanent peace agreement – a step that could bolster regional stability and reinforce Lebanon’s status as a sovereign, unified state.

Beyond this diplomatic challenge, President Aoun, along with the new government and the Lebanese Armed Forces, will need to address the reconstruction of southern Lebanon and strengthen governance in areas currently dominated by Hezbollah and Amal. International support for Lebanon’s recovery will likely hinge on the demonstration of genuine, substantial reforms in these areas.

Implications for Hezbollah

The election of Joseph Aoun as President of Lebanon carries complex implications for Hezbollah, both in the immediate term and in the broader context of Lebanon’s political and security balance, as well as in the regional arena.

Hezbollah remains an influential player in Lebanese politics, despite its relative weakening in the recent elections. Its support for Aoun’s candidacy, framed as a political compromise, stemmed from the recognition that the ongoing political deadlock could further erode the group’s standing in the country. Aoun is seen as a candidate who is not hostile to Hezbollah but also not explicitly aligned with the group. Hezbollah-affiliated officials emphasized that Aoun’s election represented an opportunity to maintain national stability while ensuring the continuation of the resistance against Israel. For example, Hezbollah parliamentarian Hassan Ali Ezzeddine stated: “The enemy continues its aggression and violations of the ceasefire… This aggression comes at a time of national consensus that has paved the way for the constitutional institutions with the election of General Aoun as President of the Republic, to initiate reform, reconstruction, and defense.”^[9] Such statements and others seek to reinforce Hezbollah’s image as a legitimate political actor operating within Lebanon’s democratic framework.

Over the years, Hezbollah has successfully balanced its dual identity as both a terrorist organization and a legitimate political party within Lebanon’s political system. Since its entry into parliament in 1992 and later into the government in 2005, the group has deepened its political influence while adhering to a strategy of brinkmanship – simultaneously engaging in extrajudicial military and terrorist activities both in Lebanon and abroad while integrating into state institutions.

Despite Aoun’s public declarations about consolidating the Lebanese Army’s authority, Hezbollah is unlikely to lose its military dominance in the short term. However, should Aoun actively promote initiatives to dismantle militias or curtail Hezbollah’s influence, the group could face significant internal and external pressure, potentially undermining its standing and, in parallel, Lebanon’s fragile stability.

As the new administration begins its work, Hezbollah continues to focus its efforts on highlighting alleged Israeli ceasefire violations. By emphasizing the resistance narrative, the organization seeks to maintain the support of Lebanon’s Shiite community, justify its ongoing armament, and reinforce its image as an essential pillar of Lebanon’s national defense.

In practice, Hezbollah is running an extensive campaign through social media platforms and its affiliated media outlets, centered on alleged Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace and territory. The group consistently underscores the importance of maintaining the resistance. For instance, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem, during a speech commemorating the fifth anniversary of the deaths of former Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani and former PMF leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis on January 4, 2025, stated: “In the past, the enemy managed to reach Beirut within days, but during its recent aggression, it could not advance more than a few hundred meters beyond the border. This is thanks to the resilience of the resistance in the confrontation… The resistance will continue, as we have chosen this path to liberate our land and support Palestine… and it is the resistance leadership that determines the timing, nature, and methods of the resistance, including its weapons.”^[10]

Hezbollah is expected to continue promoting its resistance narrative against Israel as a means of maintaining its legitimacy within Lebanon’s Shiite community and the broader region while potentially preparing for future military actions. Its persistent claims of Israeli ceasefire violations help sustain the organization’s image as Lebanon’s “protector.” It is also possible that Hezbollah will exploit the situation to pressure President Aoun into refraining from actions that could weaken the group’s military capabilities.

Aoun’s presidency will be a critical test for Lebanon’s political and security equilibrium. Throughout his term, Hezbollah’s capacity to adapt to the evolving political landscape will be tested, alongside the government’s ability to withstand external and internal pressures while advancing Aoun’s vision of a stable, independent, and unified Lebanon.

If Hezbollah continues to lose political ground, it will likely also face challenges in securing financial resources, potentially resulting in significant damage to its funding mechanisms. A decline in financial resources would impact Hezbollah’s core activities, including Iranian financial support, international criminal enterprises, and domestic economic assets. These challenges will be compounded by the substantial financial investments required to rebuild Shiite villages damaged during recent hostilities, which will necessitate large-scale funding.

Simultaneously, Hezbollah is likely to strengthen its cooperation with Iran, and, to a lesser extent, Syria, in a bid to preserve its regional standing. Iranian support, both in terms of financial aid and military supplies, will remain a critical lifeline for Hezbollah’s military and political survival. However, the current regional dynamics present considerable obstacles that could hinder Iran’s ability to continue supporting Hezbollah at previous levels. Moreover, Hezbollah might assume a more central role in coordinating activities among pro-Iranian elements in the region to counter initiatives that threaten the interests of the “Axis of Resistance.”

Time will tell whether Hezbollah can maintain its influence within Lebanon’s public institutions or whether its adversaries have succeeded in undermining its grip on power. The central question remains whether Hezbollah will manage to recover from the recent political and military setbacks it has suffered, particularly in light of the broader weakening of the Shiite axis, epitomized by the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.

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^[1] Al Mayadeen English. Telegram. Retrieved January 11, 2025, from https://t.me/almayadeenenglish/8441

^[2] Al Mayadeen English. Telegram. Retrieved January 11, 2025, from https://t.me/almayadeenenglish/8441

^[3] Al-Nashra. (2025). Raad: “We wanted to send a message during the delay of our vote for the president.” Al-Nashra. Retrieved from https://www.elnashra.com/news/show/1705588/رعد–أردنا–خلال–تأخير–تصويتنا–للرئيس–بأن–نرسل–رسالة

^[4] Alahed News. Araghchi: Iran Backs Stable, Independent Lebanon Free from Foreign Occupation. Retrieved January 12, 2025, from https://english.alahednews.com.lb/78428/391

^[5] Al-Mwali News. Telegram. Retrieved January 12, 2025, from https://t.me/almwalinews/15745

^[6] Press TV. Telegram. Retrieved January 12, 2025, from https://t.me/presstv/125227

^[7] Lebanese News and Updates Telegram Channel. Retrieved January 14, 2025, from https://t.me/LebUpdate/49807

^[8] Lebanese News and Updates Telegram Channel. Retrieved January 14, 2025, from https://t.me/LebUpdate/49807

^[9] Hezbollah Telegram Channel. Post 47905. Retrieved January 12, 2025, from https://t.me/hezbulla/47905

^[10] Telegram: Al-Nour Radio. (2025).. Retrieved from https://t.me/alnourradio/280757