Background to the Development of the Conflict
Protests in Iran (December 2025 – January 2026)
On December 28, 2025, widespread protests broke out in Iran, which quickly spread to other cities and regions throughout the country. The main trigger for the protests was economic, primarily the ongoing deterioration in living conditions, against a backdrop of soaring inflation and currency depreciation. The uniqueness of these protests is reflected in their ability to unite sectors that during previous waves of protests tended to avoid active participation, primarily bazaar traders, whose participation highlighted the depth of the economic crisis and the erosion of the regime’s traditional support mechanisms.[1] At the same time, the Iranian diaspora played a significant role in providing moral support to the protesters and increasing international exposure to the events.
Beyond the economic demands, the protests were characterized by an escalation in criticism of the Iranian regime, and in particular regarding its legitimacy. This was reflected in reports of increasing damage to symbols of government and even attacks on mosques. Criticism also extended to Iran’s foreign policy, and especially to its financial support for organizations such as Hezbollah and Hamas, against the backdrop of the domestic economic crisis. Protest slogans such as “No more Lebanon, no more Gaza” reflected the public perception that the resources directed to the external arena were coming at the expense of the well-being of citizens. In addition, there was an increase in calls from certain factions among the protesters for external intervention by Israel and the United States.[2]
In the early stages of the protest, the regime attempted to adopt a containment approach, presenting the events as legitimate demonstrations except for “a handful of rioters,” and even having limited contacts with elements among the protesters. However, as the wave of protests expanded, intensified, and became more violent, the regime changed its approach and adopted a policy of strict repression. These measures included extensive use of force, violent repression, and the imposition of severe restrictions on access to the Internet, with the aim of reducing the flow of information inside and outside the country.[3] On the night of January 8-9, 2026, extreme violence was recorded, and thousands were reportedly killed.[4] Following these events, the protest began to wane, mainly due to public fears of further escalation and the human cost of continuing the resistance.
Tensions between the United States, the West, and Iran (January-February 2026):
The wave of protests in Iran has significantly heightened tensions between Iran and the United States, Israel, and Western countries. Western countries have sharply criticized the regime’s violent repression of the protesters, while the Iranian leadership has accused the United States and Israel of direct intervention and deliberate incitement to the protests, and even of seeking to overthrow the regime. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has accused Washington of deliberately initiating the wave of protests as part of a strategic effort to destabilize the Islamic Republic, and in a direct threat to the West, he declared that “for 47 years they have not succeeded in eliminating the Islamic Republic of Iran, and you will not succeed in doing so either.”[5] At the same time, Europe has taken a declarative step of political significance when it declared the Revolutionary Guards a terrorist organization.[6]
However, the tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran are not the result of isolated developments alone, but, rather, reflect ongoing dynamics surrounding the nuclear issue. In June of last year, Israel and the United States led a targeted move designed to damage Iran’s nuclear capabilities and sensitive infrastructure, against the backdrop of intelligence assessments that Tehran was approaching a nuclear breakthrough point. The West, particularly Washington, estimated that applying controlled military pressure could create strategic leverage to renew negotiations and achieve an arrangement that would curb further nuclear buildup. However, despite these expectations, the diplomatic channel did not mature into concrete agreements, and tensions remained.
During February 2026, the escalation in the international arena continued, as the United States began to increase its military presence in the Middle East in order to increase pressure on the Iranian regime to return to the negotiating table. The transfer of significant forces to the region was accompanied by implicit threatening messages regarding the possibility of military action, and at the same time led to the opening of channels of contact between the parties. A first meeting was held on February 6 in Oman[7], followed, about a week later, by another meeting on February 17 in Geneva.[8] Against this background, the Iranian leadership, headed by Khamenei, continued to threaten the United States and warn of serious consequences of any attack, while maintaining a tough line that combined deterrent rhetoric with a cautious willingness for diplomatic contacts.
On February 22, 2026, Iran announced that it would take retaliatory measures against the European Union countries, following their decision on February 19 to designate the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization. The Iranian Foreign Ministry announced that in response, Iran is declaring the naval and air forces of all European Union countries as “terrorist organizations.” Tehran defined the EU decision as “illegal and unjustified,” claiming that the Revolutionary Guard Corps is an official arm of Iran’s armed forces, and that the decision contradicts the principles of the UN Charter and international law. It was also noted that the Iranian measure is based on the principle of reciprocity and a 2019 Iranian law, which stipulates taking retaliatory measures against countries that support or implement the American decision to designate the Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization.[9]
Renewed protests in Iran against the Regime (February 2026)
The wave of protests in Iran underwent a change in pattern towards the end of January 2026: mass protests decreased in intensity, and in their place, quiet and continuous forms of protest developed, foremost among them the “balcony protest,” in which citizens chanted slogans of protest against the regime from their homes every evening. Later, following the call of the exiled Crown Prince, Reza Pahlavi, there was a significant increase in balcony and rooftop protests as part of a “day of action” that was coordinated with huge demonstrations by the Iranian community abroad. Protests also intensified around the commemoration date marking the 40th day since the massacre between January 8-9, in which thousands of anti-regime protesters were killed.
Following this, on Sunday, February 22, with the resumption of classes at universities across Iran, student protests against the regime were renewed. At the same time, counter-demonstrations by regime supporters were organized on campuses, with Basij activists, the regime’s ideological-popular wing, operating between the two camps, supporting pro-government elements and confronting student opponents. This dynamic turned the academic space into a central arena of political friction, to the point where it was decided to shut down a significant portion of university activities in the country.
Negotiations between the US and Iran on the Nuclear Issue (February 2026)
Amid the internal instability in Iran and the growing tensions surrounding the possibility of American military action, diplomatic channels are also continuing in an attempt to forge renewed understandings on the nuclear issue. According to reports, a meeting between representatives of the parties in Geneva is planned for this coming weekend[10], subject to Tehran submitting a proposal in the coming days that will meet, at least partially, the demands of the American administration.
The official Iranian position, led by the leadership, headed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, emphasizes that “nuclear energy is an inalienable right, and the United States is not permitted to interfere in it.”[11] According to Tehran, this principle is also anchored in the guidelines of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which grant every country the right to possess nuclear facilities and enrichment facilities as part of its sovereignty. Senior Iranian officials add that a civilian nuclear industry is not intended for war, but for the administration of the state, including agriculture, medicine, and energy infrastructure, and present the American intervention as illegitimate.[12]
At the same time, Iran is intensifying its criticism of Israel, demanding complete nuclear disarmament and equal and non-discriminatory implementation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. In this context, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, argued that the nuclear arsenal attributed to Israel constitutes the main obstacle to establishing a Middle East free of nuclear weapons.[13]
The background to the ongoing conflict lies in the development of the Iranian nuclear program over decades. It began in the 1960s as a civilian program for electricity generation, which enjoyed international legitimacy and support, and within the framework of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which Iran joined in 1970. However, after the Islamic Revolution in 1979, there was a fundamental change in the direction of development: military objectives were gradually incorporated, uranium enrichment levels increased, and efforts were directed towards building a nuclear capability with military potential. Since then, the process has accelerated and deepened, with the systematic development of technological, engineering, and scientific components, and clandestine activity that has led to gradual but consistent progress toward a military nuclear capability, an issue that lies at the heart of the current dispute between Tehran and Washington.[14]
Possible American attack on Iran
In the shadow of growing regional tensions, Iran presents its security concept as defensive and emphasizes that it has no intention of initiating war. However, in its view, a violation of its national security will not be met with defensive measures alone. In this context, Iranian officials point to the attempted “12-Day War,” which they claim illustrated that, after the initial surprise phase, the initiative passed into Iran’s hands, and it was Iran that forced the end of the fighting through a gradual and increasing offensive escalation. Since that conflict, it has been claimed that there has been a significant upgrade in Iran’s military capabilities: a significant reduction in response times, integrated operation of all security forces, expansion of target pools to shorter ranges, and the opening of additional theaters of operations beyond the air dimension. Accordingly, Iran states that violating the principle of “common regional security” will lead to treating any accessible enemy interest as a legitimate target, and to a broad and powerful response, while abandoning limited “hit-and-run” patterns of action.[15]
Operation Roar of the Lion
Following the lack of progress in negotiations held in Geneva between Iran and the United States on Thursday, February 26, Israel and the United States launched a pre-emptive war against Iran on Saturday, February 28. As part of this, extensive targets in Iranian territory were attacked, including centers of government and the regime, Revolutionary Guard forces and other security elements, military installations, and infrastructure related to the Iranian nuclear program.
[1] ICT (2026, January 11) Iran wave of protest: Overview and regional implications. International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT). https://ict.org.il/iran-wave-of-protest-overview-and-regional-implications/
[2] ICT (2026, January 11) Iran wave of protest: Overview and regional implications. International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT). https://ict.org.il/iran-wave-of-protest-overview-and-regional-implications/
[3] https://ict.org.il/irans-information-warfare-during-the-december-2025-january-2026-protests/
[4] Times of Israel Staff. (2026, January 13). Report claims at least 12,000 dead in Iran, in ‘largest killing in Iran’s modern history’. The Times of Israel. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-claims-at-least-12000-dead-in-iran-in-largest-killing-in-irans-modern-history/
[5] https://ict.org.il/irans-information-warfare-during-the-december-2025-january-2026-protests/
[6] https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2026/02/19/eu-terrorist-list-council-designates-the-islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps-as-a-terrorist-organisation/
[7] https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/r1tw5gqv11x
[8] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-iran-set-high-stakes-nuclear-talks-geneva-threat-war-looms-2026-02-17/#:~:text=GENEVA%2C%20Feb%2017%20(Reuters),Araqchi%2C%20were%20mediated%20by%20Oman.
[9] https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/02/22/3522804/iran-declares-eu-naval-air-forces-terrorist-in-reciprocal-move
[10] https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/bjrhssuubl
[11] https://t.me/Khamenei_en/10292
[12] https://t.me/Khamenei_en/10260
[13] https://t.me/Irna_en/32185
[14] ליטבק, מ׳. (2020, מרץ). ישראל ואתגר הגרעין האיראני: גישה ביקורתית. בין הקטבים, 39, מעגל שלישי ב׳. מרכז אליאנס ללימודים איראניים, אוניברסיטת תל אביב
