When the world’s focus is on Ukraine and the Gaza Strip, there is a tendency to think that everything is calm in Africa in general and the Sahel in particular and that there is no bad news from there. It seems that the countries of the world are ignoring and neglecting the black continent where, since 2012, a brutal war has been raging in the Sahel, Central Africa, Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia and Mozambique. The black continent is boiling.

The situation in the Sahel region (which includes Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger) is characterized by a continuing deep deterioration in security, social and political conditions. A deterioration driven by the spread of jihadism, the climate crisis (global warming), the collapse of states and diplomatic isolation, in some countries voluntarily. ^[1]

Here are some key points that support the above:

1. The rise of jihadism – groups like the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and the JNIM (al-Qaeda affiliate – Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin), Boko Haram and their factions control entire regions such as the Lake Chad region or the JNIM organization that controls half of Burkina Faso. These groups aim to run an Islamic state based on strict Sharia law, as the Taliban did in Afghanistan, to create a ‘Sahelistan’. Capital cities such as Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso), Niamey (Niger) or Bamako (Mali) are potential targets. The pattern of jihadist activity and rebel groups has created what the French once described in Indochina as ‘a war without fronts’. There are those who might want to turn it into a war without borders, one that will devour West Africa. For some time now, countries such as Ghana, Togo, Benin and the Ivory Coast have also been feeling the effects of Islamic Jihad organizations, which carry out terrorist attacks and attack military and police forces.
2. The collapse of the Sahel countries – the military juntas of the ‘Confederation of Sahelian States’ (ESA- Alliance of Sahelian States) are losing control over entire territories. In addition to their internal disputes and their inability to pay the armed forces due to a shortage of budgets, their rule is mired in the scourge of corruption.
3. International support (mainly from France, the UN, and the USA) is collapsing, which increases the vulnerability of the region, despite the entry of Russia, China and Turkey into the vacuum created after the West’s withdrawal from these countries. ^[2]
4. 4) The first victims of extreme violence and brutality against civil society are women, artists, LGBT individuals, non-Muslims, and children.
5. Armed militias for self-defense and inter-ethnic hatred (especially against the Fulani tribe) exacerbate the massacres. The risk of genocide is no longer excluded.
6. Military stalemate and economic chaos – regular armies, assisted by Russian mercenaries (Africa Corps, formerly Wagner)^[3] or Turks (SADAT)^[4], fail to stop the jihadist offensive and suffer heavy casualties and loss of weapons. The war economy takes control, including production, smuggling, and human trafficking. Illegal exploitation of natural resources. ^[5]
7. The Sahel is immersed in an asymmetric war, with massive use of mines and improvised explosive devices (IEDs).
8. The spillover of organizations towards the Gulf of Guinea, regional contagion – followed by mass migration – The conflict spills over to the coastal states of the Gulf of Guinea and endangers regional stability. Huge migration flows move north, mainly through Mauritania, Algeria and Morocco, migration that revives the trafficking of migrants which is thriving again, despite controls.^[6]
9. Disinformation and narrative warfare – A diverse coalition of Islamists, Pan-Africanists and Russian trolls is waging a narrative war against the West – democracy is vilified, human rights are suppressed, as well as the media and any possible dissent – the rejection of the West (neo-colonialism) becomes a lever for jihadist propaganda.
10. Extremely poor governance – lack of accountability, coupled with hunger, desertification, health and education crises, add to the instability. The authorities are completely failing to address social and climate challenges.^[7] The juntas are failing to ensure basic services or maintain social cohesion. As a result, populations are migrating to cities, leading to risks of chaotic urbanization and ethnic/tribal unrest. Young people are fleeing or joining jihadists and becoming radicalized, for lack of alternatives. The security crises have resulted in more than 3 million internally displaced persons and increased the need for humanitarian assistance. These population movements weaken social and economic structures, creating a vicious cycle of refugees, poverty and conflict.
11. Exploitation of natural resources – The Sahel is rich in mineral and energy resources, including gold, oil, natural gas and uranium, which present significant opportunities for economic development. In addition, the region has potential for renewable energy, with abundant solar and wind resources, and relies on water resources such as large aquifers and major rivers, for agriculture and livelihoods. However, the region also depends on agricultural land and livestock for food security and income, highlighting the importance of sustainable management of both land and water resources.
12. Disease and hunger: insufficient access to food, drinking water, and survival resources… The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) issued a news release on June 3, 2025, warning that 28.7 million people in the Sahel region urgently require protection and humanitarian aid. ^[8]
13. What should be done given African responsibility and the absence of an outside solution? The situation is dire and getting worse.
14. Who is responsible for it? The Africans themselves, blaming the West for the diseases of the Sahel/Africa is irrelevant. The solution to the myriad problems and to curb the spread of radical Islamic organizations will not come from foreign military intervention. Anyone who believes that the mercenary forces from Russia and Turkey will operate more effectively and optimally than the Western forces led by France is deluding themselves and misleading themselves. It is seen on the ground that apart from committing war crimes against the local population, their contribution is zero. The Sahel is becoming a chessboard of international rivalries in which local states become pawns.
15. The fight against the spread of jihadism can only be carried out at the cost of internal awareness and a deep political and social effort. The fight against terrorism cannot be military alone. Military tactics and weapons are all well and good, but they are useless if the trust of the population in whose midst one is fighting has been lost. Sustainable peace requires local development, the reintegration of ‘converted’ fighters, education and the rehabilitation of infrastructure.
16. The militarization of politics has not curbed the jihadist threat, and the civilian population remains the main victim of an endless war. Thus, the Sahel lives in a constant state of insecurity that threatens to spread northwards to the Gulf of Guinea, endangering the stability of the entire continent.
17. Despite the current geopolitical context and Europe’s diminishing influence, there is still a need for the EU and its member states to remain engaged. It is essential to closely monitor developments in the region to better understand the political and security landscape, and the potential implications within the African continent. and beyond. Not only the European Union but also the US should take an interest in the Black Continent and act against its declared rivals China and Russia, who are based on the continent. ^[9]

In conclusion, the collapse of the Sahel threatens the world with cascading crises of escalating violent extremism, regional and international instability, huge humanitarian needs and climate-driven displacement, as terrorist groups spread to the coastal states of West Africa and challenge global security and development. The destabilizing combination of conflict, climate change, poverty and political instability is creating a humanitarian crisis with widespread security, economic and social impacts that extend beyond the region.

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^[1] On January 29, 2025, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger officially withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), concluding a year-long process after they announced their intention to leave the sub-regional bloc in 2024. The Sahel group of countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger) withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), thus consolidating their political and economic isolation. What began as ‘temporary’ coups has developed into indefinite transitions and the establishment of military juntas dominated by nationalist and anti-Western rhetoric. The exit from ECOWAS marks a geopolitical turning point.

In March 2025, the AES countries announced their withdrawal from the International Organisation of La Francophonie (OIF), an organization that promotes the French language and fosters cooperation between French-speaking countries.

AES Countries’ Withdrawal Frome Organisation Internationale de La Francophonie: A Step Towards Decolonisation?

https://cisanewsletter.com/index.php/aes-countries-withdrawal-from-organisation-internationale-de-la-francophonie-a-step-towards-decolonisation

^[2] The military regimes that came to power in the recent wave of coups in the Sahel region with the promise of suppressing jihadist violence have failed to deliver on this promise. Instead, jihadist groups are expanding across the region, with more deadly attacks against civilians in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, the three countries that created the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in 2023. The Sahel is now the region in the world most affected by jihadist violence. According to the 2025 Global Terrorism Index (GTI) published by the Institute for Economics and Peace, the Sahel accounted for 19% of all terrorist attacks worldwide and 51% of terrorism-related deaths worldwide in 2024, up from 48% in 2023. Five of the ten countries most affected by terrorism are in the Sahel.

Global Terrorism Index 2025, pp.48-52.

https://www.economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Global-Terrorism-Index-2025.pdf

^[3] The Russian private military contractor, Wagner, arrived in Mali in 2021, shortly after the recent coup. Today, officially known, without parody, as the ‘African Corps’, it has an established presence in the Central African Republic (CAR), Libya, Mali and Sudan, and has gained a foothold in Burkina Faso and Niger.

^[4] SADAT is Turkey’s first private military company, established in 2012 by retired General Adnan Tanriverdi to provide military advice, training and logistics to Islamic countries and protect Turkish interests abroad. While SADAT presents itself as a legitimate security consultancy, its opaque nature and alleged links to groups supporting conflicts such as Syria, Libya and Somalia have led to accusations from the Turkish opposition that it is a ‘parallel army’ for Turkish President Erdogan.

^[5] The Sahel has become a space where smuggling, drug trafficking and the illegal exploitation of natural resources finance armed groups.

^[6] The Sahel is home to 2.1 million refugees and asylum seekers, and 5.9 million internally displaced persons – figures that represent an increase of 6% and 20% respectively since the beginning of 2024. Last year, more than 16,800 people were killed in violent security incidents in the Sahel. And this crisis in the region is spreading to neighboring countries, which host an estimated 159,000 refugees and asylum seekers.

^[7] The Sahel region of Africa is experiencing widespread deforestation and desertification, a process in which previously fertile land is turning into desert. This deterioration is caused by a combination of climate change, such as increased drought and high temperatures, and human activities such as overgrazing, overcultivation of fragile land, and population growth. The Sahel, a semi-arid region spanning several countries, is particularly vulnerable to these pressures, leading to land degradation and the southward expansion of the Sahara Desert.

^[8] HNRO 2025: Almost 29 million Sahelians need lifesaving assistance and protection services

https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/chad/hnro-2025-almost-29-million-sahelians-need-lifesaving-assistance-and-protection-services

^[9] As America’s global rivalry with Russia and China intensifies, its ability to project military, diplomatic, and economic influence in Africa faces growing challenges. The geopolitical vacuum created by the withdrawal of France and the United States from the Sahel provides Russia and China with enormous opportunities to expand their influence by offering rapid support to the new regimes without the stringent conditions typically imposed by Western powers. Some of the new military regimes in the Sahel suspect that the American military presence shares a similar colonialist and imperialist agenda, which prioritizes the security and diplomatic interests of the superpower at the expense of regional demands for greater equality in security and strategic matters.

The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism.