The Escalation on the Northern Front
Expert Q&A
Abstract
Since October 7, 2023, Hezbollah has engaged in a war of attrition against Israel on the northern front, aiming to divert Israeli forces from Gaza. Despite both sides’ stated reluctance for full-scale war, recent escalations have heightened tensions. This report delves into the ongoing conflict, analyzing Hezbollah’s strategic objectives, operational constraints, and the broader geopolitical implications. Expert insights reveal that while Hezbollah was surprised by the timing of Hamas’s attack, its deeper coordination with Hamas and Iran underscores a complex and fragile regional dynamic. The report also examines Hezbollah’s response strategy, Iran’s strategic patience, and the critical juncture facing all involved parties, with the potential for either resolution or escalation into regional conflict.
Introduction
Since October 7, 2023, Hezbollah has been engaged in an attrition war against Israel on the northern front. The organization’s primary goal has been to divert IDF forces to the north, thereby reducing their presence in the Gaza Strip conflict. In recent weeks, there are signs of escalation. While both sides clearly state that they do not want a war and understand the potential scope of a regional conflict, the situation has become very fragile.
The following analysis provides insight on the ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, focusing on recent escalations and their broader implications. By engaging with experts[1], we aimed to understand the strategies, objectives, and fragility of the current situation.
Was Hezbollah Surprised by Hamas’s October 7th attack?
In his speech on November 3, Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah claimed that Hezbollah was caught off guard during the October 7 attack, attributing the incident solely to Hamas. “The remarkable and auspicious Al-Aqsa Flood Operation was entirely a product of Palestinian determination and execution, meticulously concealed from all, including the Gaza-based resistance factions, by its orchestrators. The operation’s unprecedented success was secured by the absolute secrecy surrounding it, which effectively leveraged the element of surprise.”[2]
However, while Hezbollah and Iran may have lacked precise details about the operation’s exact timing, they cannot distance themselves from their active role in shaping the strategy, tactics, training, capabilities, and funding for the October 7th attack on Israel. One clear indication of this is the series of more than 20 meetings held between Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran throughout 2022-2023, which underscores the frequency and depth of their discussions on resistance actions and objectives, highlighting their coordinated efforts.
The surprise likely lay in the timing of the attack, which also caught Hezbollah off guard. ICT experts estimate that Hezbollah had planned a similar attack through its Radwan Force with the intent of initiating a war with Israel.
Images: Hezbollah’s propaganda on Telegram: posters that emphasize its readiness to attack Israel northern border.
Why Hasn’t Hezbollah Engaged in a Full-Scale War on October 7th?
The primary reason Hezbollah did not engage in a full-scale war on October 7th, is presumably due to the loss of the element of surprise, further undermined when Israel deployed substantial forces to the northern border with Lebanon.
The Palestinians’ call for support and the necessity to demonstrate a presence led to a mutual understanding within Hezbollah and Iran: Hezbollah, along with other fronts such as the Houthis and the Shia militias in Iraq, must be involved in the conflict, even in a limited scope. Ultimately, this led to criticism within Hamas who advocated for more pro-active approach form their Shiite partners.
Since Hezbollah decided to join the military campaign against Israel, it has set a primary objective: to challenge the IDF in northern Israel and by that to reduce Israel’s military effort in Gaza and demonstrate what they perceive as “practical solidarity.”[3]
Hezbollah officials have highlighted in many cases that the conflict in the north will end once the conflict with Hamas will ceases and Israel will withdraw from the Gaza Strip. They also emphasize this conflict as a broader holy religious war. Nasrallah described the battle as “a shining example of a holy struggle for the sake of Allah.”[4] This is also highlighted when mentioning their fallen as martyrs “on the road to Jerusalem” which is presented in most of their propaganda as seen in the example below.
Image: Telegram post by Hezbollah military media account. “Martyrs on the road to Jerusalem…”[5]
In the operational sphere, Hezbollah held a significant asset before the conflict – the Radwan force stationed in the borders area with Israel, which included underground tunnels and observation posts for control. However, in eight months of limited conflict with Israel, they have lost this asset, making it more challenging for them to continue with their original plan to conquer the Galilee. Yet, they remain motivated after witnessing Hamas’s Nukhba success. In his speech on June 19, 2024, Nasrallah has highlighted that “the Israeli enemy fears that Hezbollah could invade Galilee. Hereby I say that this option is still on the table.”[6]
Image: Picture from Hezbollah “Conquer the Galilee” Video.
What are Hezbollah’s Objectives and Strategy in the Current Conflict?
While Hezbollah continue to attack the north part of Israel, a central principle in its approach is maintaining a “response equation” to any Israeli offensive. This principle ensures that every Israeli attack is met with a measured and precise counterattack by Hezbollah, aiming to prevent broader escalation while maintaining control over the conflict. Within this framework, the organization has consistently targeted IDF military objectives. This response strategy is also emphasized in Nasrallah’s speeches. For instance, in his January 5th, 2024, speech, he stated, “The resistance targeted military objectives, officers, and soldiers, and any strikes on houses were responses to the enemy’s attacks on civilians”.[7]
Hezbollah’s primary objectives are to divert forces from the war in Gaza and disrupt daily life in Israel without provoking a full-scale war with Lebanon. These goals have been partially achieved by evacuating the northern region of Israeli citizens and engaging Israeli forces in a limited conflict with minimal casualties.
To achieve these objectives, Hezbollah operates through a joint command center in Lebanon, where decisions are made in collaboration with senior figures in the resistance axis, both within Lebanon and Iran.
Hezbollah is also continuously engaging in learning processes and adjusts its strategies accordingly. With this framework, Hezbollah employs various tactics, including various rockets (among them is the Burkan), anti-tank missiles (long range), Drones and other weaponry. The organization constantly evolves its operational patterns based on battlefield insights and situation assessments. For example, they have realized that drones can effectively bypass defense systems and reach their targets. Consequently, drones have become the weapon of choice in recent weeks.
Image: Hezbollah infographic marking 250 days of conflict.[8]
It should be noted that, the mutual learning is constrained by the need to maintain secrecy. While the conflict persists, each side is careful not to reveal its secrets, ensuring that if the war escalates, they still hold strategic advantages. This applies to both defensive positions and offensive capabilities.
What are Hezbollah’s Constraints?
Hezbollah faces a complex set of constraints against its strong ideology. On one hand, the organization is committed to Shiite ideology and its allegiance to Iran. On the other hand, it must deal with internal pressure within Lebanon from both supporters and opponents to maintain political and social stability.
In fact, Hezbollah’s status in Lebanon has been changing over the past years. They have constantly needed to explain their involvement with Iran and their military actions in Syria, which they tried to portray as efforts to “protect Lebanon against the Takfiris”. This has eventually led to a decrease in support from both the Shiite community and their political opponents. The 2020 Beirut explosion, which was blamed on the organization, and the recent economic crisis in Lebanon have further damaged their reputation.
The recent conflict with Israel has also highlighted Lebanon’s complex sectarian nature and strengthened Hezbollah’s opposing bloc. This tension has been intensified by the damage in South Lebanon villages, further complicating the political landscape. Samir Geagea, leader of the Christian faction Lebanese Forces (LF) claimed that Hezbollah and Iran are leading Lebanon into dangerous territory and urged for diplomatic agreements with Israel: “If our goal is to protect southern Lebanon and Lebanese territory, then UN Resolution 1701 ensures this protection… the Lebanese army replaces Hezbollah in the south it would certainly secure the country.”[9]
How Does Iran View the Situation?
For several years, Iran has been building the concept of a multi-front confrontation to surround Israel with enemies. Hezbollah is the central force in this strategy. However, currently, it seems that the goal is to keep sustained tension without reaching a full-scale escalation. This strategy focuses on strategic patience, aiming to maintain the current state without escalating the situation beyond its present level. This strategy is reflected in maintaining support for Hezbollah while limiting their actions. However, this does not diminish Iran’s ambition to eliminate Israel. Recently, Iran’s mission to the United Nations declared that if Israel initiates a “full-scale military aggression” in Lebanon against Hezbollah, it will result in an “obliterating war.”[10]
What Could Bring About Escalation and What are the Challenges and Responses Needed from Israel?
We are approaching a critical juncture, recognized by decision-makers on both the Israeli, Lebanese, and Iranian sides, as well as in the international arena. There is a prevailing belief that Hezbollah and Israel, along with Lebanon, are nearing a decisive point. At this juncture, a choice will have to be made: to move towards an agreement or to engage in total war. If the path chosen is war, it has the potential to escalate into a regional conflict with unpredictable outcomes for all participants.
[1] Dr. Eitan Azani, Dr. Amnon Sofrin, Col. (Res) Ronen Cohen, Dr. Michael Barak, Col (Res.) Miri Eisin, Mr. Tal Beeri. Ms. Daniel Haberfeld.
[2] https://english.almanar.com.lb/1962919
[3] https://al-akhbar.com/Politics/373211
[4] https://english.almanar.com.lb/1962919
[5] Telegram: الإعلام الحربي – التغطية الإخبارية
[6] https://english.almanar.com.lb/2135927
[7] https://english.almanar.com.lb/2018876
[8] Telegram: الإعلام الحربي – التغطية الإخبارية
[9] https://english.aawsat.com/arab-world/5033377-geagea-asharq-al-awsat-hezbollah-leading-lebanon-unknown-territory
[10] https://www.timesofisrael.com/irans-un-mission-threatens-obliterating-war-if-israel-launches-lebanon-offensive/
