What can we learn from the series of attempted and completed terrorist attacks against Israeli diplomats of the past two days? Even at this early stage of investigation of the three incidents – in Thailand, New Delhi and Georgia – it is possible to highlight a number of common denominators: First, a unique kind of bomb was used, one apparently prepared or compiled in a designated, “operational” apartment by the attackers in the target country. Composed of a magnetic mechanism, the bomb was apparently meant to be appended in all three cases to the car of an Israeli diplomat, or to an embassy car, while it was moving. This would have to have been accomplished by motorcyclists, who would follow the diplomatic car from the moment it left the gates of the embassy and, when it stopped at a red light, attach the bomb to it, and then detonate it by remote control. This method would enable the attackers to circumvent the precautions taken by the victim, such as close surveillance of the car prior to getting into it. In effect, according to this method, from the moment the car had begun moving, only a malfunction or some interference with the detonator would be able to prevent the attack. The attackers were very focused. Their goal was not mass killing (for that, they would have deployed a suicide bomber to a crowded place). In this case, also, they apparently were not interested in killing just any Israeli; rather, they honed in on Israeli diplomats. These terrorist attacks were thus meant to send a message to the prime minister’s office in Jerusalem. They are a kind of “explosive discourse”. One needn’t strain too hard to get the message. By choosing a plan of action almost identical to that used in recent months to assassinate Iranian nuclear scientists (albeit with far less success), Iran’s regime of Ayatollahs essentially took responsibility for the attacks – indirectly. And if this were not enough, then the failure of the attack in Thailand and the apprehension of the two Iranians involved in preparing it provided the smoking gun that the world and Israel needed. Moreover, the plan of action was also parsed out by the Iranian Minister of Defense at a memorial ceremony for the nuclear scientists, who said that, with the guidance of Iran’s spiritual leader Khamenei, Iran had adopted a new strategy whose key component is “a threat for a threat”.
In carrying out such attacks, Iran is likely to rely on one of three institutions, or on an operational combination of the three: the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence; the Iranian Revolutionary Guards; or Hizbollah. The Ministry of Intelligence and the Revolutionary Guards have in the past been involved in terrorist attacks around the world, either by directly using Iranian intelligence agents or, alternatively, by exploiting local terrorist elements. But another terrorist “element” that bows to the will of Iran is Hizbollah’s overseas operations unit, headed, until his assassination in Damascus four years ago, by Imad Mughniyeh, the anniversary of whose death was several days ago. Ostensibly, the proximity of the attacks to the anniversary of Mughniyeh’s death may indicate some involvement by Hizbollah. At this stage, it is not yet possible to rule out such involvement. However, the chosen plan of action is not typical of Hizbollah. That Iranians, and not Lebanese, were caught in that “operational” apartment in Thailand, and that Hizbollah spokesmen have denied that the attacks were meant to avenge Mughniyah’s murder, may indicate that, whatever Hizbollah’s role in the recent attacks, it was only secondary. The attacks were initiated, supervised and, apparently, directly implemented by Iranian elements. Thus, through these attacks, Iran was attempting tell those whom it sees as responsible for the assassination of its scientists, loud and clear, to cease interfering with its efforts to develop nuclear weapons. By so doing, Iran is trying to draw for Israel a “line in the sand” which, if crossed, will elicit retaliation and reprisals. The assessment that these attacks will indeed deter Israel from persisting in the actions ascribed to it does not seem unreasonable to the Iranians, based on past experience. For example, the bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires in 1992 – a “boomerang response” to the assassination of then-director-general of Hizbollah Abbas Musawi – did indeed deter Israel for many years from attacking Hizbollah’s leaders. Will Israel be deterred this time? Will efforts to impede the development of nuclear weapons in Iran cease following these attacks? Time will tell. There is no doubt that the latest Iranian move was a total failure: a “work accident” in Bangkok, Thailand that led to the capture of two Iranian activists; the scuttling of the attack in Tbilisi, Georgia; and the attack in New Delhi, India, that led to the injury of an Israeli woman. The three incidents did not generate the effect Tehran anticipated. The relatively minimal damage that the attempted attacks caused does not obligate an Israeli military or operational response. However, the negligence of the would-be attackers, who left multiple Iranian finger prints at the scene(s) of attack, will facilitate an international legal and diplomatic campaign against Iran that will increase its isolation, impair its relations with the countries in which the attacks were attempted or carried out, and will make its senior leaders hunted pariahs throughout the world.
Founder & Executive Director, International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT), Ronald Lauder Chair for Counter-Terrorism, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC), Herzliya, Israel Prof. Boaz Ganor is the Founder and Executive Director of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) and the Ronald S. Lauder Chair for Counter-Terrorism at the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC), Herzliya, Israel. He previously served for five years as Dean and ten years as Deputy Dean of the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy & Strategy at the IDC Herzliya. Prof. Ganor serves as the Founding President of the International Academic Counter-Terrorism Community (ICTAC), an international association of academic institutions, experts, and researchers in fields related to the study of terrorism and counter-terrorism. In 2019-2020, Prof. Ganor spent a sabbatical year as a Visiting Fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), Australia; as an Adjunct Professor at the Australian Graduate School of Policing and Security at Charles Stuart University, Australia; and as the Aaron and Cecile Goldman Visiting Israeli Professor and Israel Institute Fellow at Georgetown University, United States. Prof. Ganor previously held positions at Stanford University, U.C. Berkeley, the Hoover Institution (Koret Distinguished Visiting Fellow), the Monterey Institute of International Studies, MIPT (The National Memorial for the Prevention of Terrorism), Hebrew University and Bar Ilan University. He was also a member of the International Advisory Team of the Manhattan Institute (CTCT) to the New York Police Department (NYPD). Prof. Ganor is a member of the International Advisory Council of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies (IDSS), Nanyang Technological University, The Republic of Singapore. He is also a co-founder of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalization and Political Violence (ICSR), a partnership between the University of Pennsylvania, United States; the Interdisciplinary Center, Israel; King’s College, London; and the Regional Center on Conflict Prevention (RCCP), Jordan. Since 2014, Prof. Ganor has been a Member of the Executive Committee of the Academic Advisory to the Institute for the Study of Global Anti-Semitism and Policy (ISGAP). Prof. Ganor has given briefings and/or testimonies to the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Executive Directorate (CTED), the Australian Parliament, the United States Congress, the US Army, the FBI, the US Department of Homeland Security, as well as numerous intelligence, security and police services throughout the world. He has given hundreds of guest lectures at top universities and research centers throughout the world including at Columbia University, Syracuse University, Georgetown University, the Wilson Center, RAND and the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. In 2001, Prof. Ganor was appointed as a Member of the Advisory Committee of the Israel National Security Council on Counter-Terrorism, and he has previously served as a Member of the Israeli Delegation to the Trilateral (American-Palestinian-Israeli) Committee for Monitoring Incitement to Violence and Terror. Prof. Ganor also advised the Israeli Delegation for Peace Negotiations with Jordan on Transportation Safety, the Israeli Counter-Terrorism Coordinator at the Prime Minister’s Office and the Israeli Ministry of Defense. In 1995, he was a consultant to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on his book “Fighting Terrorism – How democracies can defeat domestic and international terrorism”. Prof. Ganor has published numerous articles on terrorism and counter-terrorism. His book, "The Counter-Terrorism Puzzle – A Guide for Decision Makers" (Transaction Publishers, 2005), is used as a text book in universities worldwide and his book, “Global Alert: The Rationality of Modern Islamist Terrorism and the Challenges to the Liberal Democratic World” was published by Columbia University Press in 2015. He has published several articles in “Studies in Conflict and Terrorism”, “Terrorism and Political Violence”, “Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflicts”, Orbis and the International Law Studies. He is also the editor of "Countering Suicide Terrorism" (2001) and "Post-Modern Terrorism" (2006). He is the co-editor of “ISC 2005 – Security, Terrorism and Privacy in Information Society” (2005), "Trends in International Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism" (2007), "Hypermedia Seduction for Terrorist Recruiting" (2007), "Terrorism Informatics – Knowledge Management and Data Mining for Homeland Security" (2008), and “The Global Impact of Terrorism” (2008). Prof. Ganor is a member of the Editorial Board of Springer Intelligence & Security Informatics (ISI) journal and a member of the Advisory Board of the International Counter-Terrorism Review (ICTR). Prof. Ganor has contributed book chapters for many publications, including to Oxford University Press, Routledge, Springer, and the U.S. Institute for Peace. Prof. Ganor chairs ICT's Annual World Summit on Counter-Terrorism, the world's leading international conference in the field of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism. In addition, he co-directed numerous research projects for NATO and the Ministry of Public Security. Prof. Ganor is a frequent media and television commentator and has appeared on the BBC, CNN, CBS, ABC, the New York Times, the Guardian, The Wall Street Journal, the Jerusalem Post, Haaretz and many other Israeli and international publications.
