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Consequences of Pakistan’s Downfall: Possible Scenarios as Seen by Global Jihad

This document deals with an important publication written by Abu Obeida Abdullah Al-‘Adm, a Salafi-Jihadi of Pakistani origin, who analyzes the chances of Pakistan’s survival based on an estimate of the country’s strengths and weaknesses. 

The author points to a number of possible scenarios which can be expected to occur on the geo-political and operative plane in the aftermath of Pakistan’s downfall. It would seem that the reason for this is to stimulate the Mujahideen into devising a flexible policy and a willingness to cope with the anticipated scenarios, or even to endeavor to influence them.
The author stresses that the demise of the Pakistani regime is not an impossible development, in light of the collapse of a number of power bases, such as the factor of religion, which will be discussed at length later on. However, he fears that its downfall will serve the interests of Western countries which seek to neutralize the Pakistani nuclear threat and, on the other hand, will create a new reality for the Mujahideen, who will be confined against their will to a much smaller operational area in Afghanistan.

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