Space Terrorism
Introduction:
“That’s one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind” (Waxman, 2019). The famous words said by Neil Armstrong go down in history, but did we really understand what the giant leap would be? Fifty-two years later we can attempt to assess the wider implications of Neil Armstrong’s “giant leap” and appreciate that although there are a multitude of positive effects for outer space development, there are many potentially negative effects as well.
Space is often regarded as a void of emptiness, “the final frontier,” and the unknown. However, as outer space becomes more accessible to humans, new associations and connotations arise. In the past, space was only accessed by States, such as the USA or the former USSR. However, over the past couple of decades, with the development of new technological advancements and the decreasing costs of space launches, there has been a huge expansion and commercialization of space industries, transforming the field to be much more accessible to companies, groups and even individuals. Most space related operations will be to further scientific discovery, enhance communications, develop industries or involve military functions. However, we cannot ignore the potential that this expansion poses for unlawful acts of force such as terrorism.
This thesis identifies, describes and analyzes the potential dangers that may arise from the increased access of space, introducing the idea of a new spectrum of potential terrorist threats from States, State sponsored terrorist groups or any other terrorist organizations. As space may become the new military “high ground”, the threat of possible terrorist acts being directly targeted from outer space or indirectly performed via space-based technology, is an issue that must be addressed, and given safeguards. A clear and adaptive body of law to define, regulate and govern this possibility is mandatory, as are technological security measures and international oversight.
My intent is to find out the current position regarding the use of force in space, with particular attention to terrorist threats, to describe the shape these threats may take and what possible avenues of action need to be taken to minimize the threat. Finally, I will apply this to the case study of Israel, a country well versed in threats of terror that will need to adapt to this new arena.
Research Question and Hypothesis:
The guiding research question of this thesis is, with the increased availability of technologies that can leave Earth’s orbit and the minimal amount of regulation on private or personal use of such technologies, is there a potential security threat from terrorist organizations, and if so, how can this threat be mitigated by countries and individuals to prevent acts of “space terrorism?”
The subject of “Use of Force in Space”, is on the agenda of the UN, dealt with via various treaties, resolutions and conventions instigated to address this matter. However, the body of law and the regulations that exist at the moment, do not cover the various aspects that potentially may develop under circumstances of an act of terror. For example, there is no specific definition as to what constitutes an act of terrorism in space. Who is authorized to investigate such an act? What sanctions can be put on a State or organization that inflicts such acts of terror? Does an act of terror in space justify use of force on Earth? What is the status of a third party that may be injured through such an act? These questions and many more need to be addressed on different levels – considering the legal implications on States, private companies and individuals. In her publication from 2009, Remuss addresses the need to counter space terrorism and highlights how this subject is ignored during most discussions on security in space, “space policy studies lags behind security studies in not accounting for new threats like space terrorism and this needs to adapt to the new post-Cold War security order” (Remuss, 2009).
Within this context, it seems inevitable that this will be the next arena in which terrorism will manifest, attempting to achieve goals and ambitions from the new “high ground.” This thesis will show that with the entry of private companies into the space ecosystem, there may be more opportunities for States, State sponsored groups and independent terrorist movements to impact both Earth and space through acts of terror.
The hypothesis proposed is gathered from assumptions based on examining historic events and projecting these assumptions on future scenarios. Historically, the act of warfare has been changing continuously over time, adapting with the changing technologies and ideologies. Terrorist acts have mirrored this evolution, finding the method that instils the most fear with a large public audience. It is only natural to expect that the next stage will include acts of terror using space-based technology.
As the potential magnitude of an act of terror in space is something that may have ramifications on a global scale, exploring these questions is uncharted legal territory that will no doubt become relevant in the near future, and requires a combination of legal, technological and military knowledge. The legal and regulatory safeguards need to be paired with technological safeguards that can prevent these events, but unless this potential threat is flagged early on in the development of space technology, the consequences may be catastrophic.
Due to this new potential threat, governments should put into place measures to protect citizens and their own interests, as they would do for any credible threat on Earth. The first step of this defence should be to classify such acts as illegal and use the law to deter groups and individuals from trying to make any harmful statement in space.
Methodology:
This thesis raises the question of our approach to terrorism in space, stipulating that this is a real issue that we will probably experience in the future. In order to examine this issue, a literature search was conducted into the history of space exploration and economy, use of force in space and terrorism. The treaties, resolutions and conventions relating to this subject were analysed for references to the particular subject of space terrorism. An interview with an expert in the field was carried out to obtain an overview on the subject and material from lectures given at McGill University on use of force in space, were used.
The first section of this thesis background will discuss the history of terrorism, highlighting its development and current trends. The second part is dedicated to the situational analysis of the space industry in both the private and public sector. The subsequent section is focused on possible threats in Space along with real instances that have occurred to demonstrate the potential hazard and generate awareness. The fourth part of this thesis will look at the legal aspects using treaties and acts that have been put in place and where they can be expanded. The final section will look at Israel as a use case for a country with a high terrorist threat potential and possible vulnerabilities in space. A conclusion and further thoughts regarding how to address this issue on a policy level will follow to conclude the thesis.
History & Background:
The Terrorist Landscape:
The definition of terrorism is classified by the Britannica as, “the calculated use of violence to create a general climate of fear in a population and thereby to bring about a particular political objective” (Jenkins, 2019).
Originally coined in 1790 during the French Revolution, the term “terrorism” came from the root word “terror” with regard to the opponents of the revolutionaries (Jenkins,2019). As the definitions of terrorism remain debated until this day, it can be difficult to assess what constitutes an act of terrorism. For example, the United States code used for the State Department report on global terrorism claims that, “Terrorism is the unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government the civilian population or any segment thereof in furtherance of political or social objectives (22 Code of federal regulations 0.85) (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2010). However, the FBI classifies a domestic terrorist as a “Violent, criminal acts committed by individuals and/or groups to further ideological goals stemming from domestic influences, such as those of a political, religious, social, racial, or environmental nature” (FBI, 2018).
Terrorism has been a fixture in human history over the last couple of centuries, spanning the French revolution, and culminating in the attacks of 9/11. This act of “modern terrorism” involved a public representation to induce fear for a political or religious purpose. The attacks on 9/11/2001, where 4 airplanes were highjacked and diverted to crash into the World Trade Center in NYC and the Pentagon in Washington DC, where bold and brutal and left the world in shock at the audacity and devastation a terrorist act can bring. Following these acts, the “war on terror” became a mission for the USA and other countries in the world (Jackson, 2020). Just as this event proved to be a cornerstone that changed the perception of terror for governments and the public, so I believe a terrorist act from space may have the same effect. In 2006, U.S. Undersecretary of State Robert Joseph even warned an audience at the George C. Marshall Institute about terrorist attacks on U.S. space assets (Remuss, 2009).
Terrorism has been evolving and adapting to the different time periods with the same fundamental definition staying engrained in these acts. Today, terrorists still try and instil fear in large groups and do so through social media, as that is the platform that can reach millions in seconds, as demonstrated by the videos posted by ISIS of their beheading of western people (Pursel, n.d). Social media has also become a tool for recruitment, spreading doctrine and gathering intelligence (Pursel, n.d.). In a study by Weimann from University of Haifa, up to 90% of organized terrorism on the internet takes place via social media (Pursel, n.d.). Platforms such as twitter, YouTube and Facebook are used as a cheap and accessible method to disseminate information. Satellites are the means by which this information is transferred around the world, highlighting the potential power control over such a tool may give a terrorist organization.
Thus, as history has already shown in the examples above, it is likely that terrorist groups will continue to adapt themselves to the developing technologies and exploit any opportunity to increase their influence using space technologies.
Space Exploration & Economic Development
The first human mission to space was launched by the previous Soviet Union in 1957 on Vostok 1, following this came the 1969 Apollo 11 mission and the first landing on the moon (Aerospace, 2019). Since then, space technology has developed rapidly and in various directions. Satellites of many sorts (weather, communication, science, mapping, military etc.) have been occupying Earth’s orbit and their number now reaches the thousands. Manned space missions have increased, with almost constant occupancy of the ISS (International Space Station) and plans for missions to the moon and Mars. Space technologies have also resulted in many spin-off technologies that impact our daily lives- such as the infrared thermometer or the CT scan (Nasa.gov, 2020).
We as a civilization don’t fully understand how dependent we have become on the technologies that already occupy Earth’s orbit. The thousands of satellites that exist enable States, private organizations and individuals, the smooth function of our daily lives – from navigating with Waze to calling friends from a mobile phone on the other side of the world.
The economic footprint of the space industry has become substantial. Currently it is valued at approximately $350 billion with a growth projection of $2.7 trillion by 2040 according to the Bank of America (see table below for projections from various institutions) (JSTOR, n.d.) With such valuations, it can be inferred that more players (both private and public) will enter this sector. Furthermore, the number of Space launches has been increasing exponentially with an increase from 52 orbital launches in 2005 to 114 launches by 2020 (Clark, 2021). Thus, any disruption or damage to the space ecosystem, as may be caused by acts of terrorism, might have an immediate and devastating effect on Earth, an effect that may escalate far beyond the specific damage done. For example, targeting a GPS satellite may cause problems with air traffic control leading to airplane crashes and shipping accidents.
Major Players and their Capabilities:
“On a geographic basis, North America has the highest market share in the spacecraft market, primarily given the influence and sizeable space budget for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration better known as NASA” (Hawkins, Abssy and Versace, 2021).
In 2019, President Trump established the United States Space Force (USSF) as a separate branch of the US military. This is now one of the 8 US uniformed services and the world’s first and only independent space force, with a proposed 2020-2021 budget of 15 billion USD (Coldewey, 2020). To further expand on USA capabilities there are many projects, the full intentions of which are still hidden from the public, such as the X-37B Boeing spacecraft, an autonomous reusable spacecraft, which is designed for long orbit missions of up to two years (Erwin, 2020). The X-37B carries various NASA and U.S military experiments and is now on its sixth mission to space. However, United Launch Alliance CEO, Tory Bruno stated that “the details of the vehicle, the mission it will do on orbit, and where it will go, all that is classified” (Erwin, 2020).
The United States is not alone in their advancement of space capabilities. Russia, over the past year, has dramatically increased their “aggressive” approach towards space. Recent findings of the recent Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published in 2021, show that “Russia was the most active in testing anti-satellite weapons over the past year, including tests of a space-based weapon that appears to be capable of firing projectiles at other satellites” (Erwin, 2021). While some of Russia’s satellites are of a non-weapons nature and are primarily for surveillance and inspection of other foreign nations satellites, they do have some sub-satellites that “are of weapons nature” (Erwin, 2021).
While the public sector was the first to explore space, it is now clear that the private sector is beginning to make its mark and is becoming a major player in the field. “President Barack Obama signed the U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act, aka SPACE Act of 2015, which codified the ability of American companies to own material resources extracted in outer space” (Hawkins, Abssy and Versace, 2021). This highlights the next direction space development is taking, that of resource mining, opening yet another economic avenue for growth.
Thus, the private sector is gaining a growing foothold in space, with States increasingly delegating research and development to these companies. The growing commercial ventures, such as Space X, Virgin Galactic, and Blue Origin also pursue their own agendas and interests, which adds private sector factors into the equation. Any conflict that ensues in space will have to address the fact that private, civilian interests may be affected. As more companies and technologies are created, the barrier to entry is lowered, which enables other organisations to enter the sector. This can also be seen in the costs of sending objects to space. Sending small objects has decreased dramatically over the years, “it cost an estimated $38,734 to send one pound into low earth orbit in the early 1980s. Compare that to the cost of $432 in 2020.” (Hawkins, Abssy and Versace, 2021).
This increases the potential for terrorist organizations to access outer space, under the cover of a private company or by contracting a private company directly. It is likely that security measures for private companies may not be as stringent as those of State led missions, enabling easier planning and deployment of a terrorist plan.
Potential Threats:
Not only has the cost of sending objects to space dramatically decreased but with advancing technologies so has the size of these objects. Today the size of a satellite can be as small as a loaf of bread (Davenport, 2021). The weight has also dramatically decreased and can now be less than 500kg (Davenport, 2021). This technological advancement allows more satellites to be sent into orbit as seen with SpaceX which launched over 1,000 Starlink smallsats (Davenport, 2021).
Let’s assume a completely theoretical but possible scenario, where a terrorist group manages to take control or just manipulate a satellite to damage vital communications of a State or a global service like the USA GPS or the EU Galileo systems, this could obviously have catastrophic effects. One example of this threat is the case of “Swarm Technologies”, an American company which launched satellites without the authority’s consent in January 2018. They launched 4 small satellites (“space bees”), by using an Indian rocket without the permission of the Federal Communication Commission (FCC), thereby being the first case where a private organization launched a spacecraft without the explicit approval of a government (Fernholz, 2018). These “Space Bees” are now only 10cm by 10cm by 2.5cm in size and will act as telecommunications nodes to connect with objects on the ground such as, shipping containers (Amos, 2021). In this case it seems that their goal was only commercial, but it highlights the exposed vulnerability of the system. If this was a terrorist organization, hiding behind a shell company, they would have inserted 4 satellites into orbit without any regulatory body oversite. “The fact that a company can do something like this, and number one, the government was not able to stop them, and number two, other governments were willing- the Indian government was willing- to launch it – that says something about the lack of good, enforceable regulations, laws and treaty arrangements” says Todd Harrison, a space technology expert at the Center of Strategic and International Studies.
Another prime example of the underlying threat can be seen with the separatist organisation in Sri-Lanka known as the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (labelled by the US State Department as a terrorist organisation) who managed to “abduct” a vacant Ku-band transponder, which was on an Intelsat satellite. This allowed them to hijack the signal and broadcast their own messages in Sri-Lanka without the knowledge of Intelsat and the government in Sri-Lanka (Selding, 2007). This communication piracy is expected to rise with the increase of satellite television in Asia and Africa. Although in this example the LTTE used a vacant spot of the satellite’s bandwidth, it is easy to envision a case where a group cancels out the legitimate broadcast and substitutes its own.
These examples illustrate the potential threats that can occur when using space as a means to achieve an economic or political agenda. As the costs have been lowered and the accessibility is higher, I presume that this threat will only get worse if strict measures aren’t employed in order to tackle this growing threat.
Legal Literature Review:
As explained above, there are various documents relating to use of force in outer space. When looking at the body of law in this area, we can identify two main categories: one is “Hard Law”, including the various treaties, resolutions and laws, and the second one is the “Soft Law”, which includes non-binding norms, guidelines, standards and codes of conduct. Together, they form the current legal framework in which we operate regarding use of force in space.
The main bodies of law forming the foundation of space law, include the Space Treaties, the UN Charter, Customary Law, the law of Armed Conflict. In Article IV of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, we find a clear prohibition of placing weapons of mass destruction in space (in orbit, on celestial bodies or otherwise stationing them in outer space) (General Assembly, 2019). However, this specifies only nuclear weapons in full orbital flight, ignoring a huge range of non-nuclear weapons. This provides a loophole that can enable states to place such weapons in space leading to possible manipulation by states who want to use it as a “war playground”. The other 4 main treaties dealing with space namely the 1968 Rescue and return, 1972 Liability Convention,1975 Registration,1979 Moon Agreement) also do not establish any clear rules regarding the use of non-nuclear weapons in space. This omission may serve governments leeway in their dealings and deployment of weapons in space, but leaves all the questions and dangers of the use of non-nuclear weapons vague and unresolved.
This leads on to the issue of the rights of self-defense in space. Are the known international articles of law the right ones to use in space? Principles of Jus Ad Bellum and Article 2(4) UN Charter or Article 51 UN Charter seem to be effective enough to handle the current state of affairs in space. However, one can imagine various scenarios where these bodies of law are simply not specific enough. How can we project principles of “Armed Attack” in relation to activities in space, interpretation of violations of sovereignty, principles of non-intervention (Nicaragua and Corfu cases) etc.
In the second type of law, the “soft law”, we can identify norms and codes of conduct that create guidelines in the area, that do not reach a degree of a binding law or rule, but still constitute obligations or unifying effects between states in space law. For example, the International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities 2008, and its latest 2015 draft, which address issues of space weapons and their control, raised objections from Russia and China, both of whom did not sign the Code. However, the discussions surrounding it and the agreements they reached serve as steps towards a legally binding solution.
The principles of sovereignty, non-intervention, armed attack and others based on International law (for example the Nicaragua and Corfu cases) need to be adapted to activities in space. Over the years various non-binding norms, guidelines, standards and codes of conduct have been added to the formal framework to form an ever-expanding body of law, such as the International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities 2008, and its latest 2015 draft, which address issues of space weapons and their control. Others include the Tallin Manual and the 2005 Chatham House Principles. The MILAMOS (Manual on International Law Applicable to Military Uses of Outer Space) project was established in 2016 and aims to develop a widely accepted manual clarifying the fundamental rules applicable to military use of outer space in peacetime.
Such gaps in regulation may be exploited not only by private companies, but in my opinion, also by political or terrorist organizations who are well funded or even State funded, who are determined enough to use all means to achieve their goals.We might very quickly find ourselves in a chaotic sphere in space where terrorist activities can challenge the order of things, bringing us into a new era. Just as in the 1970’s the aviation community suddenly had to face the challenge of plane high jackings by groups intent on achieving their political goals, this reality may be what we face in the future of space, only with potentially worse devastating consequences on a global level.
Satellite Security
Ensuring security of both satellite hardware and software is a major issue in evaluating space security. Recently, during an online conference hosted by the Secure World Foundation, Eutelstat (a satellite company) executive Bertolotti stated: “we believe we have a major interest in this security related conversation.” In addition, he acknowledged that “hostile interference remains a prime, and pretty cheap way to disable or disrupt satellite operations from Earth” (Erwin 2021b). Companies and governments are well aware of the need to ensure security for satellites and the potential damage it may ensure. As the example above of the LTTE bandwidth high jacking highlights, together with the know use of social media by terrorist organizations, this aspect must be addressed and constantly updated as one of the countermeasures against space terrorism.
Use Case Country: Israel
Since its formation as an independent State in 1948, Israel has been besieged with wars and acts of terrorism, some of which were even carried out against its citizens overseas. It would not be a huge leap of the imagination to expect that these acts of terrorism may unfold in outer space, designed to cause maximum chaos and impact on Israel. Due to the very tangible threat, Israel should be ready to combat these issues as it is a matter of the State’s national security and could potentially cripple an entire nation if certain satellites and equipment were to be tampered with in space. The dramatic cost reduction makes this option available to individuals and terrorist organisations that don’t need a lot of funding to carry out an attack on an Israeli intelligence satellites, communications systems or surveillance satellites.
It appears that Israel is aware of the threat and taking various measures to counteract and prepare, as the Head of the Space and Satellite Administration in the Defence Ministry, Mr. Amnon Harari stated that, “Iran is investing a lot into building its space power and program, it is a threat that we have to monitor” (Barghoti, 2020). Ofek 16, a military satellite with the purpose of detecting “distant threats,” was recently deployed with that threat in mind. Lt. Col. Oren Barda is the head of the Israeli Air Force Space Branch, Barda stated that, “first, we must stand guard for any possible threats. Space enables long-range surveillance, space enables working in neutral territory, and space is a technology and economic booster to industry” (Baddeley, 2011).
In addition, Israel is one of the only 5 countries in the world with ASAT (Anti Satellite) weapons system capabilities, which can be used to target and bring down satellites (other countries include, China, USA, India and Russia) (Israeli Firepower Ltd., 2019). This places Israel in a strategically high position when it comes to threats from Space. In addition, Israel is one of only 7 countries to build a spacecraft for landing on the moon. Although Bereshit 1 did not complete its mission to land, it did achieve lunar orbit, and has another mission to land on the moon already planned. In addition, a civilian astronaut is to join the ISS. Thus, Israel is clearly aware of the various economic, scientific and military potential that outer space presents, and is encouraging development and investment in the field.
However, it should be kept in mind that not all other countries are aware of the threat and prepared themselves as Israel has. The question remains are all of these measures enough to deter and prevent a potential threat to the Israel and protect civilians in an effective way?
Conclusions:
As described above, use of force and terrorism in outer space, is a very realistic threat to global peace and prosperity. Just as we are developing rockets to reach Mars and build moon stations, I believe that we need to recognize the potential for terrorism in the outer space arena and put in place various measures to limit this threat as much as possible.
One such measure is to build the body of law that will regulate and guide us through this future. This area of law needs to be explored in order to build a legal framework by which all space related activities can be governed and brought under the rule of law. As the cost of sending objects to space decreases and space technology is improved, more players can have access to space. These players may have malicious intentions that can harm and impact civilians in countless ways from intelligence, communication or navigation.
Another possible measure is to consider having governmental oversight over all space launches. This may be difficult and limit the private sector expansion but thought needs to be given on methods of doing this while maintaining the autonomy of the companies. One possible solution is mandatory security vetting of all payloads and contracted missions. In addition, organizations such as the UNCOPUOS (the UN Committee of Peaceful Uses of Outer Space) should be strengthened and expanded. Expanding on this idea further, there could even be a specific task force that is responsible for upholding these regulations such as, a “space police” unit under the UN that can observe and enforce these rules. Another possible avenue that may hold a solution is technology itself. Developing various security, encryption and failsafe measures on satellites and other space vehicles is vital to ensure safety.
In conclusion, I believe, that the rapid developments we are witnessing in the space industry will bring new scenarios that will need to have clear regulations and governing mechanisms in order to combat the threat of terrorism in space. This subject must be put on the table of policy makers and law enforcers to secure a peaceful space future for all mankind and ensure that the leap Neil Armstrong envisioned will truly be a great leap for humanity.
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