Op-ed commentary on the subject Is Brazil’s Lula Taking the Right Approach With Iran? for…
Op-ed commentary on the subject Is Brazil’s Lula Taking the Right Approach With Iran? for the Washington Latin America Advisor, Inter-American Dialogue Newsletter, August 11, 2009, p.3.
Brazil has become an alternative pole of power in the Western Hemisphere, with a steadily increasing regional and global profile. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was one of a handful of international leaders, and the first Latin American, to meet President Obama in the White House.
Brazil is present and active in the G-20 group, in the enlarged G-8 meetings, the BRIC group and is considered a strategic partner by the European Union. Brazil’s relations with Iran have economic and strategic dimensions. Beyond regular trade links, Iran granted Brazil’s Petrobras rights to explore vast offshore oil reserves in the Persian Gulf and in the Caspian Sea. The Brazilian president invited Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to visit Brasilia in May to discuss their economic cooperation, but Ahmadinejad canceled at the last minute.
Shortly after Ahmadinejad’s disputed victory in the Iranian elections, and after President Lula affirmed that he was convinced election fraud didn’t occur, Iran announced that Brazil will be the Ahmadinejad’s first foreign destination after his swearing in.
In my opinion, the new strategy of President Obama to open a dialogue with Tehran and Iran’s growing hegemonic status in the Gulf have influenced Brazil’s decision to strengthen ties with Iran. However, Brazil does not take into consideration that its strategy strengthens the Tehran regime and diminishes the possibility of UN-backed international diplomatic and economic pressure to convince it to renounce its nuclear project.
Thus, it enhances the threat of Iran’s nuclear hegemonic projection vis-a-vis the moderate Arab states, threatens the stability of the Middle East, the stability of oil prices and provokes nuclear proliferation among other states in the region. Moreover, the support to the Iranian regime after the implacable repression against the opposition and the intellectual and professional elite will strengthen the regime’s grip on the country.
Senior Research Scholar, International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT), Interdisciplinary Center (IDC), Herzliya, Israel Dr. Ely Karmon is a Senior Research Scholar at The International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) and Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Policy and Strategy at The Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) in Herzliya, Israel. He lectures on International Terrorism and CBRN terrorism at the M.A. Counterterrorism Studies at IDC. He holds a B.A. in English and French Culture from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem (1964), a Licence in International Relations from the Institut d’Etudes Politiques and a Licence in Bantu languages from the Ecole de Langues Orientales, in Paris (1969). He earned his M.A. and Ph.D. in Political Science from Haifa University (1996). Associate Fellow, International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence (ICSR), London. Member of the International Permanent Observatory (IPO) on Security Measures during Majors Events at the United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI), Turin, Italy. In this framework he participated in UN seminars preparing security at Athens Olympics (2004), Turin Winter Olympics (2006) and Beijing 2008 Olympics. Dr. Karmon briefed Shanghai authorities on security and threat assessment for the Expo 2010 event. Member of the General Assembly of the International Institute for Security and Cooperation, Sofia, Bulgaria. International Expert to the Civil Military Disaster Medicine Committee of the International Disaster Medicine Association (IDMA), Naples, Italy. Member of the Editorial Board of Revista Universitas/Relaçoes Internacionais, journal of the Centro Universitário de Brasília – UniCEUB. Dr. Karmon is member of the Atlantic Forum of Israel and is involved in NATO workshops on terrorism and on the Mediterranean Dialogue. Visiting fellow (2002) at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, which published his policy memorandum Fight on All Fronts? Hizballah, the War on Terror, and the War in Iraq (December 2003). Has been Fellow at the Proteus Management Group (PMG), a think tank focusing on future scenarios at the Center for Strategic Leadership, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA. Served as advisor to the Israeli Ministry of Defense and the Anti-Semitism Monitoring Forum of the Israeli Government Secretariat. His fields of research include political violence, international terrorism, CBRN terrorism, and the strategic influence of terrorism and subversion in the Middle East and worldwide. Has written extensively on international terrorism and strategic issues of the Middle East and has participated in numerous international conferences. His book Coalitions between Terrorist Organizations: Revolutionaries, Nationalists, and Islamists was published in May 2005 by Brill Academic Publishers (Leiden and Boston). The Center for Strategic Leadership, U.S. Army War College, published his monograph, ‘Iran–Syria-Hizballah–Hamas: A Coalition against Nature. Why does it Work?’ (May 2008). Dr. Karmon is a frequent commentator on Middle Eastern issues in the Israeli media (Haaretz, Jerusalem Post, Times of Israel, Israeli TV channels, Kol Israel, i24News TV), for the Spanish daily El Imparcial and numerous media outlets worldwide.
