In a June 2012 Jerusalem Post article titled “A devil’s advocate view of ‘new’ Mideast”,…
The recent visit of PM Erdogan to Iran during which he passed a message from U.S. President Barack Obama to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which signaled that the United States would agree to an Iranian civilian nuclear program if they proved they were not developing a nuclear bomb, seems to have failed to produce positive results. It also did not bring any understanding between the two leaders about the worsening situation in Syria.
Tensions between Turkey and Iran rose after a senior Iranian figure spoke out against Turkey hosting the nuclear talks following the meeting in Istanbul of the “Friends of Syria” group of countries to which Iran was not invited, for obvious reasons, as Iran is Bashar al-Assad’s closest ally.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?an said on April 5 that Iran’s proposal to hold talks on its disputed nuclear program in Damascus, Baghdad or China instead of Istanbul was insincere. Iran accepted only at the last minute to hold the nuclear talks in Istanbul on April 13.
On this background, the influential pro-Islamist daily Today’s Zaman has recently published an interview with its founding editor-in-chief, Bülent Kene?, titled “Iranian influence in Turkey at all-time high.” The interview was published as a kind of promo after the publication of Kene?’ recent book “Iran: A Threat or an Opportunity?” The author claims that the book, based on his doctoral thesis, is an academic-based book that “does not state any claims as to whether Iran is an opportunity or a threat for Turkey.”
But in the interview itself Iran is described as a major threat to Turkish interests, including for its internal stability; it hints that Russia could ally with Iran against Turkish interests (“Russian geopolitics depicts Iran as a partner and Turkey as a threat”); and stresses the Iranian role in the enhancement of the Sunni-Shia divide.
Interestingly, Kene? completed his dissertation, “Change and Continuity in Iranian Foreign Policy (1979-2011)” under the supervision of Foreign Minister Ahmet Davuto?lu. In view of the pro-AKP editorial line of Today’s Zaman and his personal relations to Foreign Minister Davuto?lu, his views probably represent the thinking in some of the Turkish governmental circles.
In a June 2012 Jerusalem Post article titled “A devil’s advocate view of ‘new’ Mideast“, I stressed that one of the results of the so-called “Arab Spring” is the growing competition between Turkey and Iran for hegemony in the Middle East, on the one hand and the escalation in sectarian strife in the region, specifically the possibility of enhanced Kurdish assertiveness, especially in Turkey.
For an analysis of the complex Kurdish issue see Ofra Benjio’s article “The Kurdish quiet spring”.
Senior Research Scholar, International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT), Interdisciplinary Center (IDC), Herzliya, Israel Dr. Ely Karmon is a Senior Research Scholar at The International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) and Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Policy and Strategy at The Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) in Herzliya, Israel. He lectures on International Terrorism and CBRN terrorism at the M.A. Counterterrorism Studies at IDC. He holds a B.A. in English and French Culture from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem (1964), a Licence in International Relations from the Institut d’Etudes Politiques and a Licence in Bantu languages from the Ecole de Langues Orientales, in Paris (1969). He earned his M.A. and Ph.D. in Political Science from Haifa University (1996). Associate Fellow, International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence (ICSR), London. Member of the International Permanent Observatory (IPO) on Security Measures during Majors Events at the United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI), Turin, Italy. In this framework he participated in UN seminars preparing security at Athens Olympics (2004), Turin Winter Olympics (2006) and Beijing 2008 Olympics. Dr. Karmon briefed Shanghai authorities on security and threat assessment for the Expo 2010 event. Member of the General Assembly of the International Institute for Security and Cooperation, Sofia, Bulgaria. International Expert to the Civil Military Disaster Medicine Committee of the International Disaster Medicine Association (IDMA), Naples, Italy. Member of the Editorial Board of Revista Universitas/Relaçoes Internacionais, journal of the Centro Universitário de Brasília – UniCEUB. Dr. Karmon is member of the Atlantic Forum of Israel and is involved in NATO workshops on terrorism and on the Mediterranean Dialogue. Visiting fellow (2002) at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, which published his policy memorandum Fight on All Fronts? Hizballah, the War on Terror, and the War in Iraq (December 2003). Has been Fellow at the Proteus Management Group (PMG), a think tank focusing on future scenarios at the Center for Strategic Leadership, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA. Served as advisor to the Israeli Ministry of Defense and the Anti-Semitism Monitoring Forum of the Israeli Government Secretariat. His fields of research include political violence, international terrorism, CBRN terrorism, and the strategic influence of terrorism and subversion in the Middle East and worldwide. Has written extensively on international terrorism and strategic issues of the Middle East and has participated in numerous international conferences. His book Coalitions between Terrorist Organizations: Revolutionaries, Nationalists, and Islamists was published in May 2005 by Brill Academic Publishers (Leiden and Boston). The Center for Strategic Leadership, U.S. Army War College, published his monograph, ‘Iran–Syria-Hizballah–Hamas: A Coalition against Nature. Why does it Work?’ (May 2008). Dr. Karmon is a frequent commentator on Middle Eastern issues in the Israeli media (Haaretz, Jerusalem Post, Times of Israel, Israeli TV channels, Kol Israel, i24News TV), for the Spanish daily El Imparcial and numerous media outlets worldwide.
