We should not be misled by the official Israeli and Palestinian spokesmen – Nobody involved…
Will the renewal of direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians result in a wave of terror attacks? (*)
We should not be misled by the official Israeli and Palestinian spokesmen – Nobody involved in the renewed direct negotiations is really interested in holding them. The heads of the Palestinian Authority – Abu Mazen and Salam Fayyad, are perhaps the first Palestinian leaders in modern history, who fully understand that terror attacks do not promote, and even endanger, the Palestinians’ national interests. They have not become Zionists, Heaven forbid, but they are also not conducting a double strategy, as Arafat did during the Oslo process in the 90’s, when he condemned terrorism but, in actual fact, did nothing to prevent the attacks and in certain cases, even covertly supported them. The Palestinian Prime Minister, Salam Fayyad does not hide his operational plan. He proclaims it day and night. Fayyad has, for several years, worked on building the necessary infrastructure (economic, administrative, political and defense), for the establishment of a Palestinian state. This activity, which is scheduled to be finished at the end of 2011, is being executed with massive European and American support, with Israel turning a blind eye and even giving its tacit support. Fayyad even wisely stated that he does not intend to unilaterally declare a Palestinian state, which would embarrass Israel, but is only acting to prepare the groundwork for the establishment of a state and to ensure its existence, after the sides come to an agreement. (Whether he adheres to this promise, is still to be seen). From the point of view of the heads of the Palestinian Authority, holding direct negotiations with Israel is an obstacle to, and even endangers, their strategy. This is because until now, they were working to achieve their strategic goals with wall-to wall support, (to a certain degree even with the support of Hamas), without being asked to pay any price to Israel – without signing any agreements, without recognizing Israel’s right to exist, and without renouncing “the right of return”, etc. Any significant progress in the direct negotiations with Israel will necessarily result in sharp criticism within the Palestinian arena and their position will be weakened.
On the other side, there is Benjamin Nethanyahu, Prime Minister of a right leaning government, where he is now perceived to be the leftist indicator of his own government. Even if he wishes to give these negotiations a practical content, it is clear to all that by so doing, he will endanger his government and even the continuation of his regime. Bibi is not one to commit political suicide. He was happy to assist Salam Fayyad in establishing the infrastructure of a Palestinian state – in secret. However, he is not interested in overt significant progress in the direct talks with the Palestinians, because of the heavy political price involved from his point of view.
The third player in the arena – the Hamas, is also fearful of the renewal of direct negotiations. The Hamas leadership is striving for legitimacy by the world and for the removal of the blockade on Gaza. Wide-scale terror attacks did not serve the immediate interests of the Hamas until now. The Hamas leadership is examining Fayyad’s activities in building the infrastructure for a Palestinian state and instead of reaching an open confrontation with the Fatah in the West Bank, it chooses to prepare its forces in the West Bank for the time when they will confront Fatah openly, and win, and will pluck the infrastructure already prepared by the Palestinian Authority, like a ripe fruit. So long as Abu Mazen and Fayyad do not pay Israel a political price and do not sign any agreements with it, the Hamas does not wish to violate the status quo.
However, the White House is in a hurry. President Obama wants to produce a political achievement, if possible, before the elections for Congress in November 2010. He is, therefore, coercing the sides to conduct direct negotiations. Israel and the Palestinians obey, despite themselves, and their only desire is to gain enough points to serve them in the propaganda campaign, which will certainly take place after these talks collapse.
The Hamas leadership is not interested at this stage in “breaking the rules” by initiating a wave of suicide attacks. It is anxiously following the opening of the negotiations and is supporting terror attacks on a limited scale, particularly in the West bank. These attacks, whether they are initiated by the leadership or are a result of local initiative. Serve the Hamas’ goals and forward a warning message of displeasure to the leadership of Fatah, not to deviate from the procedural mandate. However, in the event that the process which started in Washington appears to be bearing fruit, then the Hamas leadership will remove all the impediments and act to renew the waves of suicide attacks inside Israel. In such a case, the scope of terrorism will be the result of the Israel Security Services, the I.D.F. and the Palestinian security services ability to locate, prevent and thwart these attacks.
(*) Based on Boaz Ganor’s opinion paper that was published in Hebrew in “Israel Today” in September 5th.
Founder & Executive Director, International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT), Ronald Lauder Chair for Counter-Terrorism, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC), Herzliya, Israel Prof. Boaz Ganor is the Founder and Executive Director of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) and the Ronald S. Lauder Chair for Counter-Terrorism at the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC), Herzliya, Israel. He previously served for five years as Dean and ten years as Deputy Dean of the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy & Strategy at the IDC Herzliya. Prof. Ganor serves as the Founding President of the International Academic Counter-Terrorism Community (ICTAC), an international association of academic institutions, experts, and researchers in fields related to the study of terrorism and counter-terrorism. In 2019-2020, Prof. Ganor spent a sabbatical year as a Visiting Fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), Australia; as an Adjunct Professor at the Australian Graduate School of Policing and Security at Charles Stuart University, Australia; and as the Aaron and Cecile Goldman Visiting Israeli Professor and Israel Institute Fellow at Georgetown University, United States. Prof. Ganor previously held positions at Stanford University, U.C. Berkeley, the Hoover Institution (Koret Distinguished Visiting Fellow), the Monterey Institute of International Studies, MIPT (The National Memorial for the Prevention of Terrorism), Hebrew University and Bar Ilan University. He was also a member of the International Advisory Team of the Manhattan Institute (CTCT) to the New York Police Department (NYPD). Prof. Ganor is a member of the International Advisory Council of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies (IDSS), Nanyang Technological University, The Republic of Singapore. He is also a co-founder of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalization and Political Violence (ICSR), a partnership between the University of Pennsylvania, United States; the Interdisciplinary Center, Israel; King’s College, London; and the Regional Center on Conflict Prevention (RCCP), Jordan. Since 2014, Prof. Ganor has been a Member of the Executive Committee of the Academic Advisory to the Institute for the Study of Global Anti-Semitism and Policy (ISGAP). Prof. Ganor has given briefings and/or testimonies to the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Executive Directorate (CTED), the Australian Parliament, the United States Congress, the US Army, the FBI, the US Department of Homeland Security, as well as numerous intelligence, security and police services throughout the world. He has given hundreds of guest lectures at top universities and research centers throughout the world including at Columbia University, Syracuse University, Georgetown University, the Wilson Center, RAND and the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. In 2001, Prof. Ganor was appointed as a Member of the Advisory Committee of the Israel National Security Council on Counter-Terrorism, and he has previously served as a Member of the Israeli Delegation to the Trilateral (American-Palestinian-Israeli) Committee for Monitoring Incitement to Violence and Terror. Prof. Ganor also advised the Israeli Delegation for Peace Negotiations with Jordan on Transportation Safety, the Israeli Counter-Terrorism Coordinator at the Prime Minister’s Office and the Israeli Ministry of Defense. In 1995, he was a consultant to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on his book “Fighting Terrorism – How democracies can defeat domestic and international terrorism”. Prof. Ganor has published numerous articles on terrorism and counter-terrorism. His book, "The Counter-Terrorism Puzzle – A Guide for Decision Makers" (Transaction Publishers, 2005), is used as a text book in universities worldwide and his book, “Global Alert: The Rationality of Modern Islamist Terrorism and the Challenges to the Liberal Democratic World” was published by Columbia University Press in 2015. He has published several articles in “Studies in Conflict and Terrorism”, “Terrorism and Political Violence”, “Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflicts”, Orbis and the International Law Studies. He is also the editor of "Countering Suicide Terrorism" (2001) and "Post-Modern Terrorism" (2006). He is the co-editor of “ISC 2005 – Security, Terrorism and Privacy in Information Society” (2005), "Trends in International Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism" (2007), "Hypermedia Seduction for Terrorist Recruiting" (2007), "Terrorism Informatics – Knowledge Management and Data Mining for Homeland Security" (2008), and “The Global Impact of Terrorism” (2008). Prof. Ganor is a member of the Editorial Board of Springer Intelligence & Security Informatics (ISI) journal and a member of the Advisory Board of the International Counter-Terrorism Review (ICTR). Prof. Ganor has contributed book chapters for many publications, including to Oxford University Press, Routledge, Springer, and the U.S. Institute for Peace. Prof. Ganor chairs ICT's Annual World Summit on Counter-Terrorism, the world's leading international conference in the field of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism. In addition, he co-directed numerous research projects for NATO and the Ministry of Public Security. Prof. Ganor is a frequent media and television commentator and has appeared on the BBC, CNN, CBS, ABC, the New York Times, the Guardian, The Wall Street Journal, the Jerusalem Post, Haaretz and many other Israeli and international publications.
