Dr. Ely Karmon in an interview to the Argentinian international website Infobae (September 16, 2019) on…
It is very probable that Iran is behind this major strategic attack against Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities.
The US has to give proof that the drones, or missiles, were fired from Iran, or from Iraq, including by pro-Iranian Shiite militias. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi that the United States has information confirming Baghdad’s denial that Iraqi territory was used to launch an attack on Saudi oil facilities.
But even if the Yemeni Houthis did it, it was, in my opinion, an Iranian operation, with their precise intelligence, training and possible control on the ground.
For the moment there is a serious economic problem on the global level, although President Trump has promised to help with US oil reserves.
It seems the Saudi reaction is quite muted taking in consideration the magnitude of the event and the damage to the facilities. Saudi Arabia is in a position of weakness while entangled without much success in the Yemeni war, and even in recent conflict with their UAE allies. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have not responded forcefully also to the previous attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf and Iran has seen this as weakness, and has hijacked yet another oil tanker.
President Trump was in a process of negotiation with the Iranians and not far from a meeting with Rouhani. This was also seen by Iranian leaders as weakness, and now they have raised the stakes.
Although the last twit by President Trump has hinted to a military response, (US ‘locked and loaded depending on verification’), all his actions lately in the Middle East (Syria, Iraq, Gulf) have shown he is not ready for a military challenge of Iran.
Let’s see if Saudi Arabia and the UAE will have the guts to attack important Iranian assets and thus drag president Trump also to a necessary retaliation against Iran.
The Gulf countries have supported in the past Arab, Balochi and possibly Kurdish separatists in Iran. Iran has accused Saudi Arabia to have supported the ISIS cells (with Kurdish members) that attacked the Iranian Parliament and Khomeini mausoleum in June 2017.
The Gulf states have also some leverage on the Sunnis in Iraq, and even on part of the Iraqi political establishment. They could foment something in Iraq.
For the moment it is not clear how the military escalation will evolve. At least the attack will stop the US-Iran secret negotiations. As for a massive military response, it is hard to see it coming from the United States in an electoral season.
It will be interesting to see how this event will impact on the public internal and regional standing of the Saudi Crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman.
Addendum update: The US has reportedly identified locations in Iran from which drones and cruise missiles were launched against major Saudi oil facilities on Saturday. Senior US officials told media outlets that the locations were in southern Iran, at the northern end of the Gulf. Saudi air defences did not stop the drones and missiles because they were pointed southwards, to prevent attacks from Yemen, they added (BBC, September 18, 2019).
Senior Research Scholar, International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT), Interdisciplinary Center (IDC), Herzliya, Israel Dr. Ely Karmon is a Senior Research Scholar at The International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) and Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Policy and Strategy at The Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) in Herzliya, Israel. He lectures on International Terrorism and CBRN terrorism at the M.A. Counterterrorism Studies at IDC. He holds a B.A. in English and French Culture from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem (1964), a Licence in International Relations from the Institut d’Etudes Politiques and a Licence in Bantu languages from the Ecole de Langues Orientales, in Paris (1969). He earned his M.A. and Ph.D. in Political Science from Haifa University (1996). Associate Fellow, International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence (ICSR), London. Member of the International Permanent Observatory (IPO) on Security Measures during Majors Events at the United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI), Turin, Italy. In this framework he participated in UN seminars preparing security at Athens Olympics (2004), Turin Winter Olympics (2006) and Beijing 2008 Olympics. Dr. Karmon briefed Shanghai authorities on security and threat assessment for the Expo 2010 event. Member of the General Assembly of the International Institute for Security and Cooperation, Sofia, Bulgaria. International Expert to the Civil Military Disaster Medicine Committee of the International Disaster Medicine Association (IDMA), Naples, Italy. Member of the Editorial Board of Revista Universitas/Relaçoes Internacionais, journal of the Centro Universitário de Brasília – UniCEUB. Dr. Karmon is member of the Atlantic Forum of Israel and is involved in NATO workshops on terrorism and on the Mediterranean Dialogue. Visiting fellow (2002) at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, which published his policy memorandum Fight on All Fronts? Hizballah, the War on Terror, and the War in Iraq (December 2003). Has been Fellow at the Proteus Management Group (PMG), a think tank focusing on future scenarios at the Center for Strategic Leadership, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle, PA. Served as advisor to the Israeli Ministry of Defense and the Anti-Semitism Monitoring Forum of the Israeli Government Secretariat. His fields of research include political violence, international terrorism, CBRN terrorism, and the strategic influence of terrorism and subversion in the Middle East and worldwide. Has written extensively on international terrorism and strategic issues of the Middle East and has participated in numerous international conferences. His book Coalitions between Terrorist Organizations: Revolutionaries, Nationalists, and Islamists was published in May 2005 by Brill Academic Publishers (Leiden and Boston). The Center for Strategic Leadership, U.S. Army War College, published his monograph, ‘Iran–Syria-Hizballah–Hamas: A Coalition against Nature. Why does it Work?’ (May 2008). Dr. Karmon is a frequent commentator on Middle Eastern issues in the Israeli media (Haaretz, Jerusalem Post, Times of Israel, Israeli TV channels, Kol Israel, i24News TV), for the Spanish daily El Imparcial and numerous media outlets worldwide.
